• Politics and Strategy

    Jeffrey Mazo: Pollyanna or Cassandra?

    10 April 2015.  Those who advocate strong action to mitigate global warming are sometimes accused of alarmism and hyperbole, or of writing ‘climate porn’ in describing the potentially dire consequences of climate change. In a Survival Closing Argument back in 2008, ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’, I argued that such apocalyptic rhetoric is not excessive – the risks really are as bad as they are made out to be. Or maybe not. In that essay...

  • Survival

    Coercing Climate Action

    25 March 2015. 

    If states cannot cooperate to take action on climate change, they might begin to coerce one another to do so.

  • Politics and Strategy

    Jeffrey Mazo: Infinite diversity in infinite combination

    24 March 2015.  Most people will be familiar, by sight if not by name, with the Mandelbrot set, a mathematical construct discovered by Benoît Mandelbrot in 1980. It is the epitome of fractal geometry and the face of chaos theory. Arising from a simple mathematical function and some rules for presentation, its visual representations are phantasmagorical and psychedelic, recursive and infinitely complex, with new details, including tiny shapes similar to the original, constantly...

  • Politics and Strategy

    Jeffrey Mazo: After the Fall

    26 January 2015.  ‘War’, the saying goes, ‘is not healthy for children and other living things’. This slogan covers both the obvious direct dangers to people from violent conflict and the indirect impacts through damage to the environment and ecosystems they live in. The latter is the focus of the Toxic Remnants of War Project (whose latest report I review in the in upcoming February-March issue of Survival), and forms one side of...

  • IISS Voices

    Shiloh Fetzek: Climate change, violence and young people

    22 January 2015.  By Shiloh Fetzek, Consulting Research Associate for Climate Change and Security A new report from IISS, co-authored with International Alert and commissioned by UNICEF-UK, examines how the combined challenges of growing youth populations and climate impacts could multiply security risks in regions already vulnerable to poor governance and social and political instability. Both climate change and youthful population age structures can affect factors that shape the security environment and influence the risk of violence. Climate and...

  • Strategic Comments

    Lima climate accord: positive steps on the road to Paris

    18 December 2014. 

    Pledges made at the United Nations climate-change negotiations in Lima suggested a higher degree of commitment to agreeing crucial emissions reductions than has been previously on display. There is a chance that a substantive deal may yet be reached in Paris.

  • Politics and Strategy

    Jeffrey Mazo: Noise and Signal in Climate Science

    18 December 2014.  The last week or so has been a busy one for watchers of climate change and climate politics. On Monday I weighed in on the UN summit in Lima. But three other stories also drew my attention: new data on Arctic ice loss; 2014’s record temperatures and the end of the ‘pause’, and Denmark’s ‘claim’ to the North Pole. For all three, there is less than meets the eye, but...

  • Politics and Strategy

    Jeffrey Mazo: UN Climate Summit in Lima - The Road to Paris

    15 December 2014.  In the early-morning hours on Sunday, two days past the scheduled deadline, negotiators at the UN Climate Change Conference in Lima, Peru, agreed a ‘Lima Call for Climate Action’. The decision ran to 22 paragraphs over four pages, outlining the ‘ground rules’ for national emissions-reduction pledges in the run-up to adopting a comprehensive global agreement at the December 2015 climate summit in Paris. Appended to the document were 39-pages of...

  • Politics and Strategy

    Jeffrey Mazo: What does the US–China deal mean for climate change?

    21 November 2014. 

  • Politics and Strategy

    Dana H. Allin: US Politics and the Climate Deal

    18 November 2014. 

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