• Strategic Comments

    US Latin America policy under Trump

    23 February 2017. 

    Trump's Latin America policy, so far generally subdued, may become more active. The administration has sharply antagonised Mexico with harsh immigration and trade policies. Trump also appears inclined to take strong positions on Cuba and Venezuela, and his tilt against trade agreements could present strategic opportunities for China in the region.

  • The Military Balance

    Chapter 8: Latin America and the Caribbean

    14 February 2017. 

    Latin America and the Caribbean:  Caribbean security challenges; Narcotics trafficking: on the up;  Caribbean security sector adapts;  Mexico;  Chile;  Central America; Defence Economics;  Defence spending;  Procurement 
    Argentina: Service developments; Defence Economics; Defence industry 
    Brazil
    Colombia: Peace agreement, economic crisis and military transformation


  • The Military Balance

    The Military Balance 2017

    14 February 2017.  The Military Balance 2017 includes new equipment analysis graphics, a wall chart comparing US forces in Europe in 1989 and 2017 and essays on the changing defence-industrial landscape, special-operations forces, and twenty-first-century challenges to twentieth-century deterrence.

  • Strategic Comments

    Colombia: what comes next?

    08 February 2017. 

    The revised peace agreement in Colombia, though still controversial, is salutary. But to implement the agreement effectively, the government will have to follow through on its reintegration obligations to former FARC members and re-establish a presence in rural areas that brings security and stability. This will be an arduous process.

  • IISS Voices

    Global development and the fear of Trump

    12 January 2017.  Comments made by Donald Trump during his election campaign suggest that US support for global development will be at risk during his presidency. But the political establishment’s faith in development offers some hope for the years ahead, Antônio Sampaio says.

  • Strategic Comments

    US–Mexico relations under Trump

    30 November 2016. 

    If US President-elect Trump were to fulfil his strident campaign promises on immigration and trade with respect to Mexico, prospects for left-wing, populist candidates in the 2018 Mexican presidential election would likely improve. Victory for such a candidate could make Mexico significantly more antagonistic to the United States.

  • Strategic Comments

    Bolivia: Morales’s growing unpopularity

    16 November 2016. 

    There appears to be growing eagerness both in Bolivia and abroad for Bolivian President Evo Morales to step down. But after losing a February 2016 referendum that would have allowed him to run for a fourth term, he has vowed to reverse this result so he can continue to serve as head of state. Turbulence in Bolivia seems likely in the medium term.

  • IISS Voices

    Antonio Sampaio: What now for Colombia's peace process?

    04 October 2016.  The Colombian people's rejection of the FARC peace deal has thrown the country into disarray. What happens now? Officially, the peace process goes on, says Antonio Sampaio, but the challenge just got a whole lot bigger.

  • Strategic Survey

    Chapter 10: Latin America

    27 September 2016. 

    The downfall of left-leaning governments across Latin America came to seem inevitable, due to their over-reliance on favourable economic winds and failure to prepare for hard times.

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