From Ukraine to Central Asia, the shock
waves from Russia’s intervention in the war
in Georgia, and its subsequent recognition
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, are still
being felt. Russia’s actions signalled to its
neighbours that it was ready to defend its
interests – by military means if necessary.
Moscow increasingly sees NATO
enlargement and Western military presence
in the region as ‘red lines’ and is ready to
Regional states, particularly those
most vulnerable to Russian pressure, are
reviewing the assumptions behind their
relations with both Russia and the West.
The largely rhetorical Western response
to Russia’s use of force has undermined
hopes that partnership with the United
States, NATO and the European Union
could help post-Soviet states to maintain
their territorial integrity.
This article discusses the implications
for Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh and the
Central Asian states.