In the April–May 2014 issue of Survival, François Heisbourg considers the case for dismantling the euro; Samuel Charap and Keith Darden discuss the Ukraine crisis and Russia’s foreign policy; and Shahram Chubin analyses Iran’s military capabilities. Also in the issue: Omer Taspinar on the end of the Turkish model, H.R. McMaster on photography at war and Rolf Tanner on narrative and conflict in the Middle East.

In the April–May 2014 issue of Survival, François Heisbourg considers the case for dismantling the euro; Samuel Charap and Keith Darden discuss the Ukraine crisis and Russia’s foreign policy; and Shahram Chubin analyses Iran’s military capabilities. Also in the issue: Omer Taspinar on the end of the Turkish model, H.R. McMaster on photography at war and Rolf Tanner on narrative and conflict in the Middle East.

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  • Russia and Ukraine

    In his book The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Samuel Huntington makes the case for the utility of an external enemy in maintaining a coherent US national identity. ‘For self-definition and motivation, people need enemies’, he wrote. His thesis has been widely discredited. But recent developments in Ukraine seem to have partially validated the claim, and given it a new dimension. After 25 years of the...
  • The Euro Goes to Court

    On 7 February, after months of deliberation, the German constitutional court finally announced its response to a complaint filed by thousands of German citizens against the European Central Bank’s (ECB) promise to buy ‘unlimited’ amounts of distressed-country sovereign debt. This is the same promise that ECB President Mario Draghi credits with having saved the euro and stabilised European financial markets. The court’s ruling therefore drew considerable attention. Eurosceptics and advocates...
  • Noteworthy

    Ukraine in dispute ‘Dear subscriber, you are registered as a participant in a mass riot.’ Unsigned message sent to mobile-phone users near the scene of violent clashes in Kiev on 21 January 2014, the day new laws restricting public gatherings took effect. ‘The law-enforcement structures are no longer threatening the life, health and security of the citizens of Ukraine.’ Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov in a formal address to the nation broadcast on 23...
  • The EU Without the Euro

    As the euro area enters its seventh year of economic stagnation, the future of the European integration process remains in suspense. In the medium-to-long term, highly divergent scenarios remain possible, with variable degrees of likelihood, from full-blown federalisation at one extreme to the catastrophic collapse of the euro and of the European Union at the other. Somewhere in between comes the actual set of policies currently followed, sometimes described as...
  • The End of the Turkish Model

    Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) was once hailed as a democratic model for Islamist contenders in the Arab world. In the wake of the first free elections in Egypt and Tunisia, Muslim Brotherhood officials often expressed their admiration for this moderate Islamic party, under which Turkey improved its democratic standards, economic performance and regional influence. Turkey’s success used to impress the West as well. Under the reformist leadership of...
  • Is Iran a Military Threat?

    Iran has been a source of international concern for decades. Its general hostility to the international system disturbs the regional order. Tehran’s initial aim of exporting the 1979 revolution, supplanted later by exporting its revolutionary model, has caused anxiety in smaller, traditional regimes. And the view that it is a belligerent state all too ready to resort to force feeds concern about its nuclear ambitions. This perspective, largely shared by...
  • Narrative and Conflict in the Middle East

    In late August 2013, at the height of the crisis over a possible US airstrike against Syria, the following letter to the editor was published in the Financial Times: Sir, Iran is backing Assad. Gulf states are against Assad! Assad is against Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi. But Gulf states are pro Sisi! Which means they are against Muslim Brotherhood! Iran is pro Hamas, but Hamas is backing Muslim...
  • Land and Rebellion: Lessons for Counter-insurgency

    Recent years have seen the United States and its allies embroiled in major counter-insurgency campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, and lesser operations in such countries as Yemen and Somalia. These battles against local insurgencies are only the latest in a string of such conflicts that have erupted in nearly every developing region since the end of the Second World War. Sharply debated at home and abroad, they raise the fundamental...
  • The Problems of the Liberal Peace in Asia

    The conviction that economic ties will engender peace in Asia has been a lynchpin of the US strategic response to a rising China for over two decades. When the US–China Relations Act of 2000 passed under President Bill Clinton, proponents of the measure argued that increased Sino-American trade would contribute to China’s peaceful rise because Beijing would reject revisionism while it benefitted from the US-led world order. As one US...
  • Has Britain Found its Role?

    ‘What is Britain’s role in the world?’ Answering this question is a vital step in a successful review of British security and defence provision. The conclusions of the latest chapter of this review process will be published in 2015, in an update to the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), which was itself the first for 12 years. The 2010 SDSR declared that ‘any strategy for our national security...
  • Gates’s Wars

    Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War Robert M. Gates. London and New York: WH Allen and Alfred A. Knopf, 2014. £25.00/$35.00. 640 pp. Very few government officials start in entry-level positions and manage to climb all the way to the role of agency head or cabinet secretary. So it says something about Robert Gates’s professional stamina and political acumen that, having begun his intelligence career as a young Soviet analyst at...
  • Photography at War

    War/Photography: Images of Armed Conflict and Its Aftermath Anne Wilkes Tucker, Will Michels and Natalie Zelt. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012. $90.00/£60.00. 612 pp. The year 2014 brings centennial commemorations of events that helped make the twentieth century the bloodiest in human history. Among these are the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on 28 June, Germany’s invasion of Belgium and France on 4 August, and the First Battle of the...
  • Chile Can Say No

    The Southern Tiger: Chile’s Fight for a Democratic and Prosperous Future Ricardo Lagos with Blake Hounshell and Elizabeth Dickinson. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012. £16.99/$28.00. 258 pp. Chile and the Neoliberal Trap: The Post-Pinochet Era Andrés Solimano. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012. £60.00/$94.00. 167 pp. In an eerie confluence of fates, the two top contenders for Chile’s presidency in late 2013, Michelle Bachelet and Evelyn Matthei, were actually childhood playmates. Their fathers, both air-force generals...
  • Book Reviews

    Presidential Leadership and the Creation of the American Era Joseph Nye, Jr. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013. £19.95/$27.95. 186 pp. Joseph Nye sets out to determine the role of presidential leadership, as opposed to structural factors, in bringing about American ‘primacy’ and the so-called ‘American era’. To do so he looks at eight presidents (Theodore Roosevelt, William Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and George H.W...
  • Brief Notices

    American Diplomacy Paul Sharp and Geoffrey Wiseman, eds. Leiden: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 2012. €50.00/$69.00. 233 pp. According to the editors, the importance of diplomacy in contributing to the overall effectiveness of US foreign policy has been underestimated in the United States by governments, foreign-policy practitioners and academics alike. Contributors look at both the potential and the limitations of American diplomacy for strengthening world peace and security. American Empire: The Rise of a Global...
  • Letters to the Editor

    Debating Nuclear Deterrence Sir, I was pleased to find that my book, Five Myths About Nuclear Weapons, had been reviewed in Survival (‘The Four Straw Men of the Apocalypse’, Survival, December 2013–January 2014, pp. 179–90). I have a high regard for the International Institute of Strategic Studies. The review itself, however, disappointed. Penned by a French advocate for nuclear weapons, Bruno Tertrais, the review is an entertaining read but does not seriously...
  • Russia’s Breaking Point

    The events in Ukraine are a national tragedy … The Arab Spring has come to the capital of a European state. – Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the international affairs committee of the Russian Federation Council The strength of Russia’s reaction to events in Ukraine should have surprised no one. Two of the major preoccupations of Russian foreign policy in the last decade have been efforts to bolster governments under assault from their...
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Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

April–May 2014

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