The unwinding of South Africa’s foreign policy

South African President Jacob Zuma's corrupt personalisation of foreign policy, systematic government mismanagement and rising xenophobia are marginalising South Africa in continental and international affairs. Restoring South Africa to its leadership standing will be a major priority for his successor and the next government.

The Trump administration and the Russia probes

Special Counsel Robert Mueller heads the most aggressive of five investigations of possible collusion between US President Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign and Russia.

Iran under Rouhani: increasing constraint

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani faces a confrontational United States, an aggressive Saudi Arabia, and Iranian hardliners who have been emboldened to constrain his reformist agenda.

High noon for Libya’s Potemkin government

Strongman Khalifa Haftar is challenging Libya's Government of National Accord for effective control of the country and has substantial outside support from Egypt and the UAE.

The Ban Treaty arrives

The recently negotiated nuclear 'Ban Treaty' marks a more invigorated and unified opposition to the customary consensus-based approach of nuclear-weapons states.

Venezuela’s deepening crisis

Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro is increasingly autocratic and the country appears to be moving towards a political tipping point in favour of the opposition.

Trump’s erratic Middle East policy

The Trump administration's Middle East policy has become impulsive and inconsistent, as with its intervention in Qatar's dispute with other Gulf Arab states.

NATO’s continuing adaptation

Despite US President Donald Trump's noted hectoring on European NATO defence spending, several European NATO countries have been modestly increasing their spending for some time owing to national threat perceptions. The real challenges are to 'spend better', in ways that genuinely enhance military capabilities and increase reassurance and deterrence vis-a-vis Russia, and to improve internal cohesion.