Political commentator and IISS council member Moeletsi Mbeki analyses Zimbabwe's power struggle. He says:
- Robert Mugabe is likely to be in a state of shock, and may not know what's happening around him.
- Figures from the Zanu PF old guard have taken power. The party's younger generation were power hungry, but have nothing to offer the country.
- Zimbabweans have no great trust in the military. Its officers helped Mugabe rig elections.
- People will not expect great changes. Mugabe's likely replacement, Emerson Mnangagwa, has been running the secret police who have been terrorising the country for years. He is "Mugabe Mark Two".
- Zimbabwe's economy is in bad shape. But with the country's vast natural wealth, it shouldn't take long to resuscitate.
- Mugabe combined liberation with repression in a way no-one else in the region could. He was evil, but also rebuilt his country in the 1980s.