Posted By IISS at 02/11/2009 16:19:07
The Russian army is undergoing its most fundamental reform since Tsarist times, changing its command structure, closing divisions, laying off 200,000 officers and giving more power to professional NCOs.
This will bring the army well below one million troops, of which 600,000 will by yearly conscripts, says Oksana Antonenko, the IISS’ Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia.
‘For the first time ever in Russian history we will have a Russian army that will have something like 300,000 officers – that’s it. This is certainly [an] army that will not be able to fight NATO... This is probably not an army that will be able to fight a war with China.’
At this year’s Valdai Discussion Club in Russia, Antonenko was among a small group of academics and journalists to receive a briefing on the reforms from Vitaly Shlykov, a senior adviser to Russian Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov.
In this video she starts by outlining the contents of Shlykov’s briefing, before moving on to the ‘desperate state’ of today’s army. She also discusses Moscow’s capability gap in the next three to five years, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s wish to buy defence equipment from, and eventually build it with, NATO countries.
A full description of the Russian military reforms will be spelled out in the IISS Military Balance 2010, launched in January.
Posted By IISS at 29/10/2009 11:58:44
The poor state of the United States’ infrastructure was under the spotlight again today, after 2,000-kilogramme steel components snapped off the Bay Bridge in San Francisco, forcing the highly trafficked bridge’s closure.
Strong winds caused a 1-metre-wide steel crossbeam and two steel tie rods to snap off the bridge’s eastern span. They fell onto the upper deck, damaging three vehicles and injuring one motorist. More than 280,000 commuters are now having to take alternative routes.
But this is not the only US bridge in less than optimal condition. The I-35 in Minneapolis killed 13 people when it collapsed in August 2007, and the American Society of Civil Engineers has given the nation’s bridges an overall C grade.
In its 2009 Strategic Survey, the IISS crunched some data into a state-by-state map examining the condition of the nation’s bridges. Which have the worst? Where is an accident likely to occur next? Click here
Posted By IISS at 13/10/2009 17:24:47
As Pakistan prepares for a military
offensive in Waziristan, here are the stark figures: four major
terrorist attacks in the country in eight days have killed 120 people. They have raised fears in some quarters for the
stability of the Pakistani state. But Professor Anatol Lieven, speaking on 12 October at the IISS, said that, while the attacks were obviously dreadful and tragic, it was important to distinguish between terrorism and the greater existential threat of insurgency – such as the Taliban rebellion that the Pakistan army had
fought recently in Swat and other districts of the country’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).
Professor Lieven, the Chair of International Relations and Terrorism Studies at King’s College London, echoed recent statements by the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that militants were challenging the Pakistan government’s authority but were unlikely to overthrow it.
However, he was less sanguine than Secretary Clinton about the security of Pakistan’s arsenal. Referring to Saturday’s Taliban raid on the army HQ in the capital of Punjab province, he said: ‘I hope the attack in Rawalpindi will be a wake-up call to the Pakistani security forces to increase the security of their nukes.’
Professor Lieven was speaking at the IISS having spent several weeks this summer interviewing locals in Islamabad, Peshawar, Swat and Buner.
Posted By IISS at 03/09/2009 16:08:19
Fresh disturbances erupted this week in China’s western Xianjing region, two months after clashes between ethnic Uighur and Han Chinese killed nearly 200 hundred people and injured 1,700. On Thursday, some 2,000 Han Chinese gathered in the main square of the capital, Urumqi, to protest about deteriorating public safety. The renewed unrest, in which demonstrators scuffled with police, follows several stabbings of members of the public with hypodermic needles.
The Chinese government deployed 20,000 extra troops to Xinjiang after members of the region’s main Uighur ethnic group targeted Han residents in July. Another outbreak of violence ahead of the 60th birthday of the communist People’s Republic on 1 October will be particularly worrying to the authorities.
Such recent violence in Xinjiang has laid bare the idea of China’s ‘harmonious society’. And as the latest issue of Strategic Comments explains, it has also exposed failings in the government’s minorities policy. Beijing has oscillated between relative tolerance of Uighur customs and enforced assimilation, when the Uighur language and practice of Islam has been banned. Today’s leadership in Beijing is having to tread a fine line.
Click for a backgrounder to recent Ethnic strife in Xinjiang. As this week’s developments show, it’s a wound in China’s side that’s unlikely to heal soon.
Posted By IISS at 16/06/2009 16:39:19
With the future of the disputed results of Iran’s presidential election uncertain following the largest protests the country has seen in decades, the political situation in Iran is volatile and the outcome of the current crisis difficult to predict.
In his Adelphi Paper Iran Under Ahmadinejad: The Politics of Confrontation, Ali Ansari outlines how Ahmadinejad’s populism and his confrontational posture have represented an ad hoc and somewhat incoherent attempt to disguise the growing contradictions that afflict the Islamic Republic. The president’s approach, he argues, reflects the conservative vision of an unaccountable Islamic autocracy faced with growing dissatisfaction in the country it rules, especially among key sections of the elite.
Ali Ansari is Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. He is the author of several books and articles on Iran, and has appeared on television and radio programmes to discuss Iranian issues, including the events of recent days.
Read more about Iran Under Ahmadinejad, or buy now.
Posted By IISS at 13/05/2009 12:49:14
The latest issue of Strategic Comments, the Institute's online journal, has just been published.
As debate rages about US air strikes in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the first article, The drones of war, joins the aircrews in Nevada who remotely operate aircraft over Asia, and discusses the pros and cons of deploying unmanned aerial vehicles.
Like US President Barack Obama, Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai recently celebrated 100 days in office. Power-sharing in Zimbabwe discusses the difficulties he faces in working with former foe President Robert Mugabe to turn around this failing state.
Kenya’s unity government has had a year to make much-needed changes, but Kenya’s political stalemate leaves international partners worried that 2008’s inter-ethnic clashes could recur.
Also in this issue, Strategic Comments looks at the recent UK rethink on counter-terrorism and at how Economic stress continues globally