17 September 2009: Jane's Defence Weekly
By Trefor Moss JDW Asia-Pacific Editor
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A far more ambitious schedule for training Afghan troops can realistically be implemented, according to the US-led body that trains ANA soldiers
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Political support appears to be gathering behind a new target of 134,000 ANA troops by November 2010
Bringing the Afghan National Army (ANA) up to its full mandated strength of 134,000 by November 2010 - a year ahead of the current schedule - is "achievable", according to the body that oversees the training of Afghan national security forces (ANSF).
The ANA is currently timetabled to number 134,000 by the end of 2011. However, in early September UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, said that he wanted the deadline to be brought forward to November 2010 and for the number of cadets graduating each month to be doubled from 2,000 to 4,000.
A strategic assessment recently conducted by NATO commander General Stanley McChrystal, who recently met with Brown in Afghanistan, is also understood to have addressed the need for speeding up ANSF training, although his review has not yet been published.
A NATO source speaking on background told Jane's that the coalition increasingly sees the ANSF as "their ticket home" and is therefore keen to redouble its ANSF training efforts.
Brigadier General Anthony Ierardi, Deputy Commanding General of the US-led Combined Security Transition Command - Afghanistan (CSTC-A), told Jane's on 11 September that the ANA training schedule could feasibly be accelerated along the lines suggested by Brown.
"The current plan is to grow the ANA to 134,000 by December 2011. This plan is on track and that goal is achievable," Gen Ierardi said. "The growth of the ANA to 134,000 by the end of 2010 is under consideration. This pace of growth will be achievable but will require close monitoring and collaboration between ISAF [International Security Assistance Force], CSTC-A and the Afghan Ministry of Defence."
Earlier this year, CSTC-A commander Major General Richard Formica also anticipated a more ambitious ANSF training schedule when he told Jane's in Kabul that the ANSF would ultimately need to number "roughly double" the current planned force of 216,000 for both police and army.
A UK Ministry of Defence spokesman said on 11 September that the more ambitious target outlined by Brown remained "an aspiration" but that discussions were continuing about whether to back the new schedule and also whether to increase the UK commitment of 9,000 troops.
Recent operations in Helmand province, in which Afghan forces played only a minor role, and August's presidential election, during which the security forces appeared powerless in many areas to prevent Taliban violence and intimidation, have raised concerns that Afghan soldiers and police are not progressing as quickly as expected.
However, CSTC-A spokesman Lieutenant Colonel David Hylton, while recognising "that more Afghan soldiers are required to create security and stability", defended the ANA's record.
"The Afghan National Army is leading over 57 per cent of deliberate operations," he said. "In parts of Afghanistan it leads all operations."
Of the 116 ANA units now in the field, 46 have been certified as capable of independent operations (CM1), Col Hylton said, while 32 are capable of leading an operation with NATO support (CM2) and 38 are capable of participating in missions (CM3).
As of September 2009, the ANA numbered 94,000 troops, he said, with two battalion-sized kandaks graduating each month.
Gen Ierardi said that the "recruiting and retention of qualified soldiers" would be key to achieving any accelerated target. CSTC-A assumes a 10 per cent annual ANA attrition rate in its training projections. However, sources in Kabul have expressed concern that the attrition rate could rise above that as increasing numbers of ANA troops start completing their term of service.
