30 January 2009: The Nation
Can a weak, dependent and divided country stand up to massive external pressures? The economy is in the pits. Nick Gowing of BBC has called Pakistan a "virtually bankrupt country." We barely managed to escape insolvency by knocking at the IMF door. The electricity shortage disaster has interalia, paralysed our none-too-robust industry. We keep begging abroad from potential donors and loan givers brazenly hailing them as "friends".
India has officially described Pakistan as "the epicentre of terrorism" and keeps threatening it. The world media considers us "the most dangerous country in the world." In its annual review of world security, the London International Institute for Strategic Studies has noted that Al-Qaeda elements along the "disputed" Afghanistan-Pakistan border have increased their activity in Pakistan while continuing to support the insurgency in Afghanistan. The think-tank says that "in NWFP, security forces in general remain unwilling or unable to effectively counter the resurgent Afghan and Pakistani Taliban militants with TTP beginning to control large swathes of the tribal areas and their influence spreading in the adjoining areas, an increase in cross-border attacks against coalition forces and civilians in Afghanistan has taken place." Similar findings are occasionally aired in US media, in US think tank reports and even in statements issued by US senators, house representatives, Pentagon officials, military commanders and the White House spokespersons.
In July last President Bush formally approved the policy to attack targets in Pakistan. A Washington Post report clearly stated that drone attacks were being made on the basis of an understanding with the government of Pakistan and that Pakistani protests were little more than posturing. We indeed keep going through the motions of denouncing the attacks as a violation of our sovereignty and even calling the American ambassador in Pakistan to lodge formal protests and later swallowing humiliation when instead of stopping, the strikes become more frequent. Our good-natured prime minister was naïve enough to make an official statement last month that with the coming in of the new US administration, the attacks would cease. This hope has been sharply belied as drone strikes have continued even after Obama's take over, causing dozens of civilian casualties.
Mr Gilani when asked at the Davos World Economic Forum in Geneva about these strikes said that they were counter-productive and that there was no agreement between US and Pakistan about it. He pleaded for the building up of Pakistan's military "capacity" to do the job effectively. Zardari too in an article in the Washington Post has made a similar request: "Give us the tools and we will get the job done." Are we hired labour and should the head of a state make such written commitments in foreign newspapers? It is not realised that we have managed to disastrously mess up our position in the tribal and adjoining areas. And even after sustained military action mostly against our own people suffering heavy security personnel, civilian casualties and displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, all that we receive is qualified appreciation, reprimands and exhortation to do more.
One has to understand that Americans are determined to intensify their intrusions in our territories. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint chief of staff said on Tuesday at a media briefing in Washington: "I think the top priority for us right now is Afghanistan - Pakistan and the biggest US concern with respect to Al-Qaeda is their existence in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas in Pakistan and the need to make sure that that threat, that safe haven, is eliminated...the situation there grows increasingly perilous everyday...the suicide and improvised explosive device attacks are up by 40 percent over the last year."
Robert Gates US defence secretary in his testimony at the Capitol Hill said that both presidents Bush and Obama were committed to going after Al-Qaeda targets "wherever Al-Qaeda is" and that the Obama decision to continue strikes in Pakistan had been conveyed to the Pakistan government. Talking about the appointment of a special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Hillary Clinton said earlier this week: "We are engaged very vigorously in trying to assess what has been done before and what we are going to be doing."
David Sanger writing in The New York Times refers to three major reviews of future American strategy in the region. These are: One, already completed by the Bush national Security Council, the other, just finished by the joint chiefs of staff and one more under way by
General David H Petraeus. And of course Richard C Holbrook will be implementing the agenda emerging out of these reviews. Are Mr Zardari and Syed Gilani aware of the contents of these strategic analyses and findings - prone as they are to make off-the-cuff statements on related overwhelmingly important matters? Have they directed the foreign office and the official think tanks to study and develop well considered approaches and policies in the light of these strategic road maps?
As the caption of this column indicates, Pakistan today is weak and divided, politically, economically and governance-wise. And dependent on doles from outside. What a pity that the new elected government of Pakistan has fallen grievously short of expectations after the February 2008 elections. Not only have the discredited Musharraf policies and practices continued, much to the dismay of the people of Pakistan things have actually deteriorated. Besides the economic downturn - industry suffering decline and high inflation, there have been severe food, fuel and power shortages. Law and order have worsened.
Suicide bombings have increased. The delivery of services (except for the Punjab) has gone down. The institutions remain weak and discredited. The Parliament unanimously passes resolutions on crucial national issues which remain unimplemented. The Cabinet consists of more than 60 ministers - a cruel joke in a county which is short of funds and runs its affairs with loans from outside. It has the temerity to reinstate thousands of legally dismissed party favourite officials after the lapse of more than a decade, along with unearned salary arrears.
Above all the Chief Justice of Pakistan, unconstitutionally removed by the army chief, remains out in the wilderness despite solemn promises by chairman of the ruling party to restore him. The powers to dismiss the National Assembly and make major appointments - usurped by the military dictator - despite solemn assurance of repealing the 17th amendment have been kept intact. According to the constitution, the prime minister is the chief executive of the country. It is the president who is taking all the major decisions and issue directives. The Punjab governor too has turned a constitutionally neutral and prestigious office into an arena of political wheeling and dealing, openly promoting party interests.
To cap it all, the world acclaimed lawyers' movement for the reinstatement of the chief justice and some of his colleagues has been sought to be the scuttled. Fortunately the lawyers have stood their ground and plan to step up their efforts.
What Pakistan urgently needs is strength, stability and unity. All that we see is increasing weakness and growing disunity.
An enormous responsibility rests on Nawaz Sharif and his party to work for mobilising people, civil society, the opposition and the media to influence and press the federal government to honour its commitments and promises and in particular to restore the constitution to its pre-October 1999 position and strive for rebuilding national institutions.
It is advisable for the PPP leaders, in the larger interest of democracy and the country, to resist temptation of destabilising the Punjab
government and to ensure that the attempt to disqualify the Sharif brothers is stopped.
Tail Piece: It will do a lot of good if somehow Imran Khan could have a one-on-one meeting with President Obama. His open letter is a good start. He should pursue the ideas contained in it internationally to drive home Pakistan's point of view.
The writer is ex-federal secretary and ambassador
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