26 February 2009: Lloyd's List
Only three months ago experts were warning that a focus on our economic problems and the resulting change in priorities could lead to waning interest in environmental issues.
In fact, spurred by UN discussions in Poland in December and the enthusiasm of a new US President, climate change has never been far from the headlines.
As our understanding of climate change has moved on, so too has the breadth of our discussion. Thorny questions around how to achieve mitigation remain a key focus for the international community as we work towards a post-Kyoto framework.
However, one of the most notable trends to emerge recently is a growing emphasis on the ‘bigger picture’.
How will climate change interact with the other super-trends influencing our society? In particular, as climate change forces the world’s powers into a struggle for advantage and even survival, will it fuel a new round of global security issues?
New transatlantic dialogue on climate change and security
Yesterday, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) launched the Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security in Washington DC, with funding from the European Commission.
This provides a new forum for policy makers—particularly those involved in the defence, security, and intelligence communities—to explore the ways in which a warming global climate will affect global and regional security.
The inaugural event, moderated by former Ambassador Thomas Pickering, featured speakers from the European Commission, the Pentagon, the National Intelligence Council and IISS.
One of the areas which the dialogue will concentrate on is the effect of a warming climate on weak and distressed nations.
“We know that in many cases it is the poorer states that will be worst affected by climate change, while the gloomy economic forecast is no longer confined to developed nations. Understanding the potentially destabilising effects of climate change on these countries will become critical in trying to manage global security,” Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the IISS, says.
Discussion focus
The dialogue will also focus on the shifting balance of power in the Arctic, the implications of reduced food and water supplies, and the potential adaptations of global security organisations to best respond to the challenges of a warming climate.
Over the next year, the dialogue will explore these questions at two major conferences in Washington and London. These discussions will be supplemented by a series of workshops and discussions, which it is hoped will help forge a consensus between Europe and the US policymakers on how to approach the issues.
New Lloyd’s 360 report: climate change and security
However tempting it may be to leave discussion of these complex issues to the defence experts, it is clear that any climate-driven security concerns will have major economic implications too. But although climate change is fact, there continues to be a high level of uncertainty over how severe the consequences will be in financial terms.
Lloyd’s 360 and IISS have therefore teamed up to explore these issues from a business perspective in a new report. Gwynne Dyer, the report’s author, has worked as a journalist, broadcaster and lecturer on international affairs for more than 20 years and is the author of 2008 book Climate Wars.
The report will conclude that the business community must get to grips with four main factors in order to understand the link between climate change and our future economic security. The four factors, which are explored in detail, are water resources, the food chain, energy and natural resource supplies, and likely demographic change.
Dr Richard Ward, CEO of Lloyd’s, explains:
“As climate change takes hold, there will be greater competition for resources, nations may become more protective of their assets, and markets will become more volatile, all of which will have an impact for business strategy and operations. It is critical that the business community and their insurers start to understand these interdependencies now and prepare for them within their business plans and risk management strategies.”
Turning climate change risk into business opportunity
The report will also highlight that climate change and the resulting potential for instability will also generate real business opportunities.
“As well as generating risks, the interaction of climate change and deteriorating security will actually present tangible development opportunities for business too, in areas ranging from energy efficiency to water conservation,” Nigel Inkster, IISS, says.
As the report makes clear, governments will be dependent on the creativity and organisational skills of the private sector in developing strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
The Lloyd’s-IISS report, ‘Climate change and security – risks and opportunities for business’, will be published in April on lloyds.com/360.
Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security Homepage
