20 February 2009: Daily Telegraph
Iran has stockpiled enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb, United Nations officials have said.
As United States President Barack Obama and his advisers decide how to approach negotiations with Tehran over its controversial nuclear programme, the UN watchdog released a report saying that Iran had produced more nuclear material than previously thought.
The report, by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said Tehran had accumulated more than one ton of low enriched uranium hexafluoride. If further enriched, this quantity would be enough to produce a bomb. Western non-proliferation analysts estimate from 1,000 to 1,700 kilogrammes would be needed as a basis for conversion into high-enriched uranium to make one bomb and Tehran could reach that threshold within a few months.
But it would take Iran another two to five years before it was capable of producing nuclear weapons, IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei said earlier this week.
Iran is defying five UN Resolutions by enriching uranium in an underground plant at Natanz. This process is highly sensitive because it amounts to "dual use" technology.
If uranium is enriched to four per cent purity – which Iran says is the only intention – it can be used to run nuclear power stations. If enriched above 87.5 per cent, however, the uranium reaches weapons-grade and becomes the essential material for a nuclear bomb.
Large quantities of low-grade material must be amassed before Iran will have the option of converting this into the high purity uranium needed for weapons.
If the country goes to the next stage and chooses to produce weapons-grade uranium, it would have to expel the IAEA inspectors who monitor its plants, thereby drawing attention to its activities.
Moreover, to produce fissile material, Iran would have to reconfigure its plant at Natanz, a move that would take many months, or shift the operation to another site.
Mr Obama has pledged to "engage" directly with Iran's leaders and seek a diplomatic solution to the nuclear confrontation. However, Iran's success at reaching a stage where it might amass enough material for a bomb in a matter of months crosses a line Israel has said it would not accept and could alter the US president's willingness to enter into talks.
The US urged Iran to give up its enrichment activities and said Tehran's refusal to respond constructively to IAEA requests over its program was "deeply troubling".
"We view this report as another opportunity lost to resolve international concerns," said Gordon Duguid, a spokesman for the US State Department.
The report comes after the International Institute for Strategic Studies predicted that Iran would amass enough low-enriched uranium this year to have the ability to build a nuclear bomb by the end of 2010. Tehran claims the mainly US intelligence was forged.
The report said Iran was still boycotting IAEA investigators looking into allegations of past covert atom bomb work.
Iran has faced three sets of UN sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment.
