15 December 2009: Financial Times
By Digby Lidstone
At the official level, relations between Iran and the leaders of neighbouring Arab states tend to be polite without being warm. But beneath the surface, it seems, suspicion of Iran on the western side of the Gulf has deepened markedly.
A survey by YouGov, commissioned by Qatar’s Doha Debates and published last week, found that on the Arab side 80 per cent of those surveyed do not believe Iran’s assurances that it is not trying to develop nuclear weapons.
The poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 people in 18 Arab countries last month, found that most see Iran as a bigger threat to security than Israel, with a third believing Iran is just as likely as Israel to target Arab countries.
So Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, faced an uphill task when he arrived in Bahrain at the weekend to attend a security summit organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Iranian officials tried to use the event, a rare occasion on which senior politicians from both sides of the Gulf meet openly, to enlist the support of Arab states as the west considers tougher sanctions.
Iran was ready to settle any “misunderstandings” about a 1971 statement in which the pre-revolutionary government in Tehran recognised Bahraini independence on certain conditions, Mr Mottaki said. He also opened the door to renewed talks with the United Arab Emirates over ownership of the islands of Abu Moussa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, which both sides claim. “There is no issue on which two countries cannot talk and settle through negotiations,” he said.
Relations between Iran and its immediate Arab neighbours have ebbed and flowed. The Arab Gulf states were strong backers of the Baathist regime in Iraq during its 1980-88 war with Iran. Since then some, notably Dubai and Oman, have forged stronger links on the back of trade and investment while Qatar has built strong diplomatic links with the Islamic regime. This is in spite of other states’ concerns about Shia Iran’s meddling in Arab affairs.
Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa, Bahrain’s foreign minister, said western nations had only cursorily consulted Arab states in the nuclear dialogue with Iran. Many felt the US and European nations were “talking behind our back”, Sheikh Khalid said. In addition, Arab Gulf states opposed any sanctions that hurt the Iranian people, he said.
Mustafa Alani, a security analyst at the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai, says the six Arab countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council do not have a unified strategy towards Iran.
“Countries such as Oman have better relations than those such as Saudi Arabia and the Iranians play on these differences,” Mr Alani said.
“The Iranian objective is to negotiate a package deal with the US – its relations with the GCC and even Europe are secondary . . . They want recognition as a regional power, and they think this deal can be secured from the Obama administration.”
Iran has said it will pursue its nuclear programme with or without foreign help, opening the door to tougher sanctions.
The US, Russia and France had proposed a deal by which Tehran would export most of its stock of low-enriched uranium, which would be further enriched in Europe and returned to Iran under a closely monitored programme. Tehran declined to endorse the plan, but protests that a counter-proposal has been ignored.
“What do they mean Iran has not responded?” said Mr Mottaki. “Iran has proposed a middle way, a compromise solution.”
Western officials at the IISS summit said the Iranian counter-proposal – Mr Mottaki reiterated that his country needs 10 to 15 nuclear plants to generate electricity – would get short shrift in Washington, where plans for tougher sanctions are being drawn up.
William Cohen, former US defence secretary, described Mr Mottaki’s comments as “a thumb in the eye” of the international community. “It is very clear what needs to be done,” he said. “If they were so determined to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme, why reject the Russian proposal?”
Mr Cohen said the appeal for greater Arab involvement in nuclear talks fell on sympathetic ears, but was unlikely to alter western policy.
“The issue right now is timing, the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] and the UN have been involved in negotiations for an excessive period of time, and people think time is running out for a diplomatic solution.”
