02 December 2009 : Xinhua News
Nigel Inkster, the Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said that in 2009 the main change in the global balance of power has been a decline in US influence brought about by the global financial crisis. The influence of other nations is on the rise, but the USA remains at the heart of global political and economic affairs.
Inkster considered that although the USA remains globally pre-eminent in the fields of economic activity, hard power and military capabilities, it can no longer achieve its objectives by the unilateral exercise of power. The USA now needs to put together coalitions of countries on a pragmatic basis in order to attain its ends.
Inkster said: “at the same time, as the influence of other actors on the world stage becomes progressively greater, relatively speaking, US global influence is in decline. Thus, there will inevitably come a point at which we will witness a shift in the global balance of power. In that respect it may be that from various perspectives, 2009 may prove to have been something of a tipping-point.”
Inkster however emphasised that the USA remained at the heart of global political and economic activity and that it would be premature to write the USA’s obituary. He said: “the USA’s capacity for regeneration should never be under-estimated. Although the USA is now unquestionably facing serious difficulties, it nonetheless remains an incredibly vibrant country, able to provide its people with opportunities to give full play to their talents in a way that no other country can.”
He added: “of course we must also recognise that as China and other countries take their place on the world stage US influence is in relative decline. The USA is no longer as powerful as it has been for a considerable period following World War II but this doesn’t mean that it hasn’t remained important and influential.”
Turning to the emergence of the G20, Inkster said:” To some extent the G20 has already replaced the G8 which has become increasingly less representative of the true distribution of global economic power. In 2009, the G20 has consolidated its role as an institution and has played an important role in addressing the global economic crisis. The G20 embodies global economic interests more effectively than the G8 was able to do.”
Inkster said: “the fact that the membership of the G20 accounts for around 80% of global economic activity is sufficient to illustrate how important it is. And the economic issues being addressed by the G20 cannot be entirely divorced from politics. Over time the G20 is likely both to become more of a formal institution and to begin to exercise more influence on the direction of global politics.”
Speaking about the Lisbon Treaty which came into force this year with the aim of promoting European unification, Inkster said that an important outcome of the Treaty was the establishment of the long-term post of President of the European Council. The hope was that the person occupying this post would be able to exercise some degree of influence. The post of Foreign Minister established by the Treaty would however have greater impact.
But it remained to be seen whether the Lisbon Treaty would give rise to an EU that was more integrated and unified. It was uncertain whether the leaders of individual European states would be prepared to cede further sovereignty. The larger, more powerful states within the EU hoped to constrain the development of the new institutions in order to avoid their own power becoming diminished. But one outcome of closer European relations might be an increase in military co-operation.
The IISS was established in 19598 by a group of scholars, politicians and opinion-formers. Initially the IISS focussed on nuclear threats and arms control but greatly expanded the scope of its work during the 1980s and 1990s to include political and military issues on every continent, providing strategic communications and analysis and promoting contact between policy-makers, the private sector and academia.
