26 April 2009: Straits Times
CHINA'S show of its naval force last week at the 60th anniversary celebrations of the People's Liberation Army Navy has revived apprehension about its emergence as a formidable military power. Much of it is unwarranted. The logic behind China's naval build-up - which includes ballistic-missile submarines and reportedly an aircraft carrier - is compelling and understandable in a big-power context. With its far- flung trade and supply networks, Beijing needs to harness the naval capabilities necessary to defend its expanding sea lanes of communications. Chinese historians like to cite Mao Zedong, who once said that China does not 'desire one inch of foreign soil'. They also stress the pacific nature of the Great Wall.
There remains, however, a nagging dissonance about China's declarations about its 'peaceful rise' and its prior actions. Since the 1970s, China has clashed with Vietnam and the Philippines over disputed islands in the South China Sea. Some historians note that China's oft-repeated 'active defence' strategy blurs the distinction between offence and defence. They cite the wars against India in 1962 and the former Soviet Union in 1969 - both of which China described as 'self-defence counterattacks'.
There have been - and will be - incessant debate about its intentions. Like any country with sizeable strategic interests, it is normal for Beijing to be somewhat opaque about its military build-up. But this cannot be so entrenched as to undermine regional stability, and especially relations with the United States. What may be worrying is not a China-US war by premeditation - neither party desires that - but one via miscalculation. The last Sino- American conflict - the 1950-1953 Korean War - occurred largely due to misperceptions. Last month's incident between a US surveillance vessel and Chinese ships in the South China Sea is another case in point.
On the flip side, growing understanding between Washington and Beijing has developed over issues such as the status of Taiwan, North Korea's nuclear programme and the global economic crisis. US officials are pleased that China is participating in regional fora such as the Shangri-La Dialogue. At last week's military observances, President Hu Jintao stressed - again - that China will never seek hegemony. It is becoming more attuned to how foreign quarters view its actions. Such confidence-boosting statements are all to the good. It is through this broad lens - reassurance and back-channel discussions - that China's military expansion should be viewed.
