29 September 2008 : Korea Times
Seoul Needs to Be More Positive, Prepared Player
This will be a busy week for North Korea watchers, who may get some peeks into what's happening in Pyongyang.
Guesses are rampant as to why the isolationist regime is allowing Christopher Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator in the six-nation talks for nuclear disarmament, to enter the country Wednesday. Equally puzzling is the North's motives in proposing inter-Korean military talks after severing all direct governmental contacts since President Lee Myung-bak took office about seven months ago.
The two events may or may not be connected, but the North's two-pronged diplomatic initiative seems to show Pyongyang has made up its mind in short- to mid-term course of action in its foreign policy.
We hope it is for the better. Considering the North's "consistent'' backpedaling moves in denuclearization recently, Kim Jong-il seems to be still in charge in the reclusive country. Analysts say no other forces, including even the powerful military, can make such a retreat in defiance of their Dear Leader.
If so, it's time for Kim to finish his show of displeasure with the delayed removal of his country from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and get ready to compromise on the verification regime.
Whether or not the visiting U.S. official can persuade his North Korean counterparts to agree to the "agree-now-implement-later" verification compromise, there is an absolute taboo for North Korea _ never cross the ``red line" of reloading the plutonium plant, as it will destroy the five-year-long process.
Kim should know about the changing political atmosphere in the United States, in which the priority in diplomatic policy is shifting from the legacy of the outgoing president to the new, more hawkish platforms of presidential wannabes. None of the two would-be presidents can afford to make concessions to nuclear troublemakers abroad, like North Korea and Iran, at least for the coming months.
Pyongyang may feel tempted to wait out the U.S. elections but it could mean another long wait of up to a year, during which many U.S. officials could forget about the existence of the six-party formula. Throughout the delay, it will be the communist country ― particularly its people ― suffering the hardest from famine and other economic difficulties.
Likewise, North Korea is ill advised if it uses the proposed inter-Korean military talks to vent out its disgruntlement with the South, such as wild speculation here about Kim Jong-il's health and dropping of anti-Pyongyang leaflets from hot-air balloons by the South's right-wing groups.
The North instead had better be ready to discuss the prevention of further accidents to South Koreans in the Northern territory as well as how to facilitate the inter-Korean economic projects in Gaeseong.
Presuming Pyongyang may turn constructive in the upcoming talks, what matters is Seoul's response. It is reassuring in this regard that Prime Minister Han Seung-soo expressed his hope that it would "serve as a starting point for improving inter-Korean relationship."
If Han's remarks are to become a reality, however, a change should occur in a person higher than the prime minister, namely the President. Lee seems to be gradually warming to the idea of closer ties between the estranged Koreas. Still, the chief executive's words and actions are betraying he has not changed inside.
It's time for President Lee to at least upgrade his thinking from a tactical to a strategic level, if altering his true self is impossible.
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