29 September 2008 : Joongang Ilbo
The world faces new dangers in this era of globalization and South Korea is no exception, said a British transnational threat specialist in an interview with the JoongAng Daily on Friday. Nigel Inkster cited uncontrolled immigration in the event of the collapse of North Korea and the growing population of immigrant Muslim workers as some of the South’s potential challenges.
After 31 years of service for the British Secret Intelligence Service, Inkster has been working as the director of transnational threats and political risk at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Inkster, former deputy head of MI6, left the service in 2006.
He visited Seoul to attend the Korea Forum, where security experts from around the world have gathered to discuss the topic “Korea in the Emerging Asian Power Balance” from Saturday to today. The forum marked the 50th Anniversary of the IISS and the inauguration of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
In the past, terrorism used to be a domestic issue, Inkster said, but such activities have today become increasingly transnational. While the IRA (Irish Republican Army), conducted its anti-government activities in the United Kingdom and the ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, or Basque Homeland and Freedom) operated in Spain, a new breed of terrorist organizations operate without borders, he said, citing Al Qaeda as an example.
Inkster also said drug smuggling groups have also became globalized, noting that South Korea, with its growing disposable income, could become a target.
“Pandemic, uncontrollable migration and climate change are also transnational threats,” Inkster stressed. “If I had to speculate on what new forms terrorism might take, I might look at things like extreme ecological organizations as the debate on climate change becomes more intense.”
The presence of U.S. troops in the country could also make South Korea a potential target of Islamic extremist groups, Inkster said, although the possibility is slim. Intelligence authorities should pay more attention to monitoring the growing population of migrant workers from Pakistan and other Islamic countries, he said.
Inkster also called North Korea a transnational threat, not for its engagement in traditional terrorist activities but for other reasons.
“In two respects, it is,” he said. “In terms of its involvement in proliferating weapons of mass destruction, in particular its missiles.”
Smuggling and dollar forgery are also an issue in the North, Inkster said.
“Allegations of large scale forgery of U.S. currency, if proven to be true, will have to constitute a serious problem. If nobody has any confidence whether a U.S. 100 dollar bill is genuine, that has implications much wider than the Korean Peninsula.”
Inkster did say, however, that the North should be taken off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism in strict terms.
“For many Americans the concept of the axis of evil is a concept which fewer people find helpful in analyzing international events,” he said.
Amidst the health concerns of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, Inkster said a mass migration of North Koreans if the reclusive communist regime collapses will pose serious problems involving not only South Korea but also China and the United States.
“China will be able to find a pragmatic compromise on how this stabilization should be achieved,” he said. “China will not be happy if this involves a significant American military presence on its border, but that is unlikely the outcome anyway.”
By Ser Myo-ja Staff Reporter [myoja@joongang.co.kr]
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