18 September 2008 : Financial Times
By James Blitz in London
Georgia has weakened its case for NATO membership as a result of its “irresponsible” decision to try and recover South Ossetia, a leading UK-based think-tank said on Thursday, warning that US attempts to bring the Georgians into the alliance risked dividing the west.
In its annual analysis of world events, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Russia’s reaction to the Georgian move was “disproportionately strong” and “unjustified.” But the IISS warned that the west must be careful how it responded to Russia’s defiant mood, and avoid advancing its interests without being aware of the emotional response that this could elicit from the Russian leadership.
The IISS said in its Strategic Survey that it was highly critical of the Georgian leadership. “Georgia has weakened its case for NATO membership,” it said. “It openly defied its main strategic patron, the US, by seeking to recover its lost territories, taking on a declared Russian interest without the ability to do so alone and then calling on the West to sort out the mess it created.”
The IISS went on to say that there was now a risk that the US would press home its attempt to bring Georgia – and Ukraine - into Nato. But it said the European members of the alliance should resist this.
“Europeans have a strong case to argue that it is in NATO’s strategic interest to pause its enlargement policy…Europe will want to invite the US to think strategically, not nostalgically, about the weight it wishes to attach to NATO enlargement in its regional policy.”
The IISS argued that dealing with Russia was becoming increasingly difficult for the west but said the implications of the Georgia crisis should not be exaggerated. “The events of August 2008 do not signify fresh steps towards a new cold war because neither side wants one, and the stakes are too low to warrant one,” it said. However it added that “they do mark the distinct end of the romantic phase of the post-Cold War order.”
The organisation said the west needs to develop a truly specific Russia policy , something that was not immediately necessary after the Cold war period. But reflecting on the crisis it added: “The most powerful remark made about Russia’s actions in Georgia were not those made by the EU or NATO, but those made by the markets in wiping so much value off Russian stocks and effectively marking up Russia risk.”
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