26 September 2008: Straits Times
By William Choong
DURING the Six Day War of 1967, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) defeated the combined armies of Egypt, Jordan and Syria. The effects of the victory still resonate today, particularly in the strategic Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria.
Forty-one years later, Israel and Syria are in the process of securing a historic peace deal. On paper, the deal is pretty straightforward: Damascus has demanded the return of all of the Golan Heights. In return, Israel wants Syria to scale back ties with Iran and cut its links with Hamas in the occupied territories and Hizbollah in Lebanon.
The significance of the deal, if it comes about, will be far-reaching. Sealing a peace deal with Syria will secure peace for Israel on all of its three major fronts - Syria to the north, Egypt to the south and Jordan to the east. It would also mark the end of Syrian aid to Hizbollah, the Shi'ite militia which humiliated the IDF in the summer of 2006. For Syria, the return of the Golan Heights will give it a significant military asset and mark the end of its isolation from the global community.
Israel and Syria launched indirect negotiations, sponsored by Turkey, in May. Earlier this month, however, Israel postponed another round of talks pending party elections in the ruling Kadima Party to find a replacement for outgoing premier Ehud Olmert.
In 2000, then-United States president Bill Clinton led marathon talks between the late Syrian president, Hafez Assad, and former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, only to see the negotiations collapse over differences regarding a 100m-wide piece of land in the Golan Heights. That sliver of land would have given Syria access to the Sea of Galilee - a major source of water for Israel.
A landmark peace deal will not arrive anytime soon. Sealing it will entail significant concessions from both sides. In addition, Israel's political scene remains unsettled, with Ms Tzipi Livni needing to cobble together a coalition to ascend to the premiership. The position of the next US administration is also unclear.
Speaking at a recent security conference in Geneva organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Major-General Giora Eiland - formerly the director of Israel's National Security Council - pooh-poohed the significance of Israeli-Syrian rapprochement.
Such a deal will not solve Israel's problems with Iran, Lebanon and Hizbollah, he said. Most importantly, it will not help resolve the long-running Israeli-Palestinian issue.
'I'm not so sure such a deal can compensate Israel for the loss of land. The President of Syria (Mr Bashar Assad) is also not perceived in Israel as someone who genuinely wants peace,' the straight-talking general said.
Washington has also shown little interest in an Israeli deal with Syria. In recent years, the US has called for regime change in Syria and alleges that the country has been building a clandestine nuclear reactor - a facility that Israeli aircraft destroyed last September.
'The Americans have said that 'if you want to make peace with Syria, go ahead, but don't ask anything from us, because we didn't ask you to do it',' said Gen Eiland. 'It's wrong to believe that a peace agreement will have an important and dramatic influence on the region.'
Hizbollah is supported by the Iranians and will continue to exist even with the conclusion of a Israeli-Syria peace deal, he pointed out.
On the flip side, there appears to be significant momentum towards an eventual deal between Israel and Syria, arch-enemies which have been technically at war with each other for the past 60 years.
Arguably, Israel stands to register a net gain from ceding the Golan Heights. From the Heights, it is less than 96km to Israel's industrial heartland in Haifa and Acre. Between 1948 and 1967, Syria used Golan as a military stronghold from which its troops sniped at Israeli civilians in the agriculturally-rich Huleh Valley below.
But according to Strategic Forecasting, the Texas-based commercial intelligence firm, losing the Golan Heights now would not pose a big problem. Syrian artillery perched on the Heights can be easily neutralised by counter-battery fire, helicopter gunships and aircraft. The main threat to Israel is posed now by Syria's formidable arsenal of Scud missiles, which are located beyond the Golan Heights.
For Syria, a deal with Israel will mark a clean break from its traditional strategy: seeking Soviet/Russian patronage, and keeping the country's enemies mired in costly battles to preserve its own position.
Two weeks after Russia's invasion of Georgia on Aug7, Mr Assad headed to Russia, hoping to secure an arms deal and a closer defence alignment with Moscow. This move, however, was foiled by the Israelis, who had reportedly arrived at a quid pro quo with the Russians, whereby Tel Aviv agreed not to supply Georgia with weapons if Moscow promised not to deliver arms to Syria and Iran.
Moreover, some analysts contend that Syria's interests now lie, not in its traditional 'regional spoiler' strategy, but one in which it aligns itself closer to the United States. A key part of this would involve seeking Washington's help in mediating a deal with the Israelis.
'The most important lesson Bashar Assad learnt from his father is that good relations with Washington, more than any other foreign capital, serve Syria's strategic interests,' wrote Mr Bilal Saab and MrBruce Riedel, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
Earlier this month, Mr Assad proposed direct negotiations with the Israelis - a significant move in itself. And as Gen Eiland himself conceded, the ground in Israel is also shifting towards a deal with the Syrians.
'I might have a different opinion, but more than half of Israel's security-military establishment believe that a reasonable solution with the Syrians can be arrived at. So that's an encouraging sign,' he said.
Israel secured a historic peace treaty with Egypt in 1979, followed by a similar deal with Jordan in 1994. Whether Ms Livni - or another Israeli leader - will be able to deliver Israel's third peace treaty in nearly 30 years remains to be seen.
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