20 October 2008: Vremya Novostei
Question: Would you care to hazard a guess concerning appearance on new conflict areas in the world, ones in the regions spared all this trouble so far?
John Chipman: Conflicts are quite possible in the Middle East. On the other hand, they are not conflicts of the kind to evolve into a war between regular armies. They are conflicts where guerrilla warfare methods will be practiced.
Question: What countries of the region will be involved?
John Chipman: Practically all of them, even including Kuwait that enjoys relative stability these days, and Lebanon. As for text-book armed conflicts, I'd say that one might flare up in the Asian-Pacific region.
Question: Let us consider the West now. Paradoxical as it may appear, but some experts in Russia have no fears anymore concerning the continuation of NATO's eastward expansion. They believe that too large, NATO will be unwieldy if controllable at all. Would you say these expectations are justified?
John Chipman: This approach is not unreasonable at all. Certain commitments with regard to new members go with the expansion. Politically speaking, expansion makes the situation in general more difficult to handle. It is known after all that the Alliance is supposed to make crucial decisions on the basis of consensus, and expansion certainly complicates this process. The operation in Afghanistan is proof that NATO is no longer a single-minded player because what countries opted to join this operation there have come to Afghanistan with their own interests and their own self-imposed restrictions. To adapt the old axiom, there is no efficiency in numbers. It fully applies to NATO.
Question: Prospects of the so called war over the Arctic region is something new on the international agenda. The countries with access to the Arctic Ocean become increasingly more at odds with one another. Is a war like that really possible?
John Chipman: That the involved countries are at odds is hardly surprising. On the other hand, these countries arranged an international meeting where all these problems were brought up. Granted that there will be purely political discord over it in the next decade or two, I do not see it deteriorating into an armed conflict.
Question: Russia has been objecting to the development of the third area of the US national ballistic defense system in East Europe. Some fears and concerns stem from the knowledge that killer missiles in the silos may be easily replaced with offensive weapons one day. Would you call that possible?
John Chipman: Very many throughout the West admit that the decision to deploy killer missiles in East Europe was anything but optimal from the political standpoint. The United States, Russia, and Europe have spent years already discussing missile defense of theaters of operations and the nature of missile threats from foreign countries. I wish the United States made the decision in closer cooperation with Moscow. As for the speculations that killer missiles will be withdrawn one day and replaced with offensive weapons... they are wholly groundless, of course.
Question: The Old World is avidly discussing a limited nature of European military capacities these days. Any comments?
John Chipman: Our International Institute for Strategic Studies drew a document that evaluates these capacities. There is more to them, you know, than the numbers of tanks and aircraft. I'd say experts, Russian experts among them, should take a look at the French White Books. They will certainly find it interesting in this context. It includes three important clauses that the Russians will probably find interesting. First, the document admits for the first time in history that 10,000 French servicemen should be ready to repel internal threats any moment. Second, it suggests the necessity to improve information gathering and perhaps come up with new approaches in the matter in order to be able to predict future threats. Third, it emphasizes the importance of outer space and the necessity to develop spy satellites. The gist is as follows: it was control over the World Ocean that was of strategic importance in the 19th century. It is control over outer space that will matter in the 21st century.