28 November 2008 : Independent
By Anne Penketh DIPLOMATIC EDITOR
Two questions hang over the massacres, for which Indian security forces appear to have been completely unprepared: who did it, and why?
Security analysts said yesterday that, while the involvement of al-Qa'ida could not be ruled out after foreigners were targeted for the first time in a major Indian attack, initial suspicions focus on home-grown Islamic militant groups which have become a major concern for authorities.
Although the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, blamed "external linkages" and appeared to point the finger of blame at Pakistan, it was not clear last night whether he was repeating India's familiar accusations against its neighbour in the wake of every major terror attack or if he had firm evidence following the arrest of nine suspects involved in the shootings.
The festering sore of Kashmir, over which Pakistan and India have fought two wars, is ever present. One of the militants holed up in the Jewish centre in Mumbai contacted Indian television to ask: "Are you aware how many people have been killed in Kashmir? Are you aware how your army has killed Muslims? Are you aware how many of them have been killed in Kashmir this week?" He was said to be speaking Urdu with a Kashmiri accent.
Proof of a Kashmiri connection is likely to lead to rising tension in the subcontinent as these groups not only have ties with groups such as al-Qa'ida but also the Pakistani intelligence service, ISI. "There are serious concerns in India about the support of the ISI for militant Islamic groups," said a security analyst, Garry Hindle.
The Mumbai attacks were claimed by a previously unknown group, the Deccan Mujahedin, which is calling for the release of jailed Islamic militants. "At first glance, it looks like an offshoot of the Indian Mujahedin which itself arose out of the student Islamic movement," said Nigel Inkster, a senior analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies who is a former assistant director of MI6.
"We've been worried about the indigenisation of Islamist extremism in India," Mr Inkster added, referring to the new splinter groups springing up inside the country which are distinct from militant organisations imported from outside and accused of being sponsored by Pakistan.
Security specialists pointed out that targeting of foreigners and co-ordinated plans could be an indication of external activity. But they remained cautious about linking the shootings to the core al-Qa'ida leadership. "It can't be ruled out," said Mr Inkster. "There had been expectations of an al-Qa'ida 'spectacular' during the transition period in America, which has not happened. The CIA has been putting pressure on the core al-Qai'da leadership in Pakistan." US drones have been used there to bomb suspected militant leaders in tribal areas. But why would Islamic militants target Westerners in India? "Because it would be easier than in the US or Europe," he said.
The latest attack seems to be part of a pattern in which militants focus on cities powering the country's growth, such as Mumbai - where almost 200 people were killed in train bombings in 2006 - Bangalore and Delhi.
Following an unprecedented nuclear deal struck between Washington and Delhi, "Obviously India is a de facto ally of the US," said Mr Inkster. The attack "was designed to knock the government off balance and disrupt progress."
Mr Hindle, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute, said the shootings may have been intended to disrupt the US-Indian relationship. Judging by the security response, Indian intelligence had no warning of the arrival of the militants by sea.
It remains a mystery why the head of India's counter-terrorism squad, Hemant Karkare, led the response on the ground. Although he was wearing a bullet-proof vest, the 54-year-old officer, one of the leading lights in the security forces who took over as counter-terrorism chief less than a year ago, was shot dead in a firefight.
Before his death, Mr Karkare was praised for a breakthrough in an investigation into a blast outside a mosque in Malegaon which led to the arrest of a serving army officer linked to Hindu extremists. Only last weekend Prime Minister Singh called for the creation of a special task force to come up with a 100-day plan to fight terrorism. Three days later, the terrorists struck.
