A WEEKEND is usually time for leisure. But last weekend defence chiefs and officials from Asia and beyond were kept busy as they met for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, organised by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was present to reiterate America's commitment as a 'resident power' in Asia.
China, which signalled its commitment to the Dialogue last year by sending a high-level team, reinforced it by sending Lieutenant-General Ma Xiaotian, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
French Defence Minister Herve Morin and British Defence Secretary Des Browne, among others, came from Europe. And from South-east Asia, Malaysia's Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, who was absent last year, turned up this year. Vietnam sent its highest-ever military delegation to the summit and Laos became the latest to join the forum.
07 June 2008: Straits Times
By Shefali Rekhi, Assistant Foreign Editor
A WEEKEND is usually time for leisure. But last weekend defence chiefs and officials from Asia and beyond were kept busy as they met for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, organised by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was present to reiterate America's commitment as a 'resident power' in Asia.
China, which signalled its commitment to the Dialogue last year by sending a high-level team, reinforced it by sending Lieutenant-General Ma Xiaotian, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
French Defence Minister Herve Morin and British Defence Secretary Des Browne, among others, came from Europe. And from South-east Asia, Malaysia's Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, who was absent last year, turned up this year. Vietnam sent its highest-ever military delegation to the summit and Laos became the latest to join the forum.
All this was not without reason. The region's security outlook in the years ahead is set to be marked by a prolonged period of uncertainty. There will be subtle shifts of influence among the leading players and a range of new non-traditional security issues - among them, climate change - to deal with.
Asia's resurgence was described as the 'epochal event of our times' by Senator Joseph Lieberman of the US. And Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong noted 'the mood in the developed countries is defensive, partly because the emergence of Asia is shifting the balance of power', though the region's rise is not a zero-sum game.
Still, Asia's rise coincides with the waning of US influence as the Iraq war drags on. Russia, too, has punched its way back to the world and has criticised US plans for missile sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, examples of old-style imperialism, Moscow says.
Washington's perceived weakness has seen Iran increase its influence in the Middle East, where turmoil continues unabated.
Asia has been watching these developments warily. Some have questioned America's commitment to the region as China increases its economic influence, builds up its military and deploys its soft power to cement ties in the region.
'Today, given the grand backdrop of the world's irreversible polarisation, deepening economic globalisation and robust regional cooperation, the future and destiny of China has been closely associated with the future and destiny of the world,' Lt-Gen Ma said at the Dialogue, exuding confidence.
He also justified Beijing's defence spending as reasonable - to 'safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity'.
In March, Beijing said its defence spending would rise 17.6 per cent this year to 417.8 billion yuan ($82S.4 billion). That is equivalent to about 1.4 per cent of China's gross domestic product. The US, by contrast, spends 4.6 per cent of its GDP on defence and Britain, 3 per cent.
But more than the quantum of its defence expenditure, it is China's arsenal that has caused some anxiety. Mr Gates contested Beijing's claims that its growing investment in long-range ballistic missiles does not represent a threat to other countries.
Stratfor, a private intelligence group, said these missiles would be able to deliver 'more warheads more accurately' to the continental US.
Recent revelations that China has built a massive new naval base in Sanya, on Hainan island, have added to concerns. The strategically located base has underground facilities, according to Newsweek, and will provide the Chinese Navy with deep-water access to the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean regions. It would also give it the ability to project its power in and around vital trade routes.
How the US will respond to China's inevitable rise over the next two to three decades is the key issue for the region, Dr Tim Huxley of the International Institute for Strategic Studies told The Straits Times.
'What is Washington going to do about China's increasing power projection capabilities and the increasing reach of the PLA? How will it adjust its military capabilities and deployments in the region? That is what countries here want to know.'
They also want a reassurance from China that it does not have any aggressive intentions, he said.
For its part, the US has made it clear that though its ties with Asian countries are likely to change, it is prepared to respond effectively to any situation that might arise.
'If China is the 800-pound gorilla in Asia, the US is still the 1,600-pound gorilla,' said Mr Ralph Cossa of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank based in the US.
'China wouldn't grow, couldn't grow, if the US hadn't helped it,' he told The Straits Times. 'Frankly speaking, China is still 30 years behind the US in terms of military capabilities'.
Still, regional power equations are changing.
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