11 December 2008: The National
This is more of a transition month than most. The US President-elect is preparing for office and has named key figures in his cabinet. The rest of the world thinks it knows a great deal about the new Administration’s foreign policy priorities. On assuming office, Mr Obama will concentrate on the economic and financial crisis while his national security team will consult allies, adopt a multilateral approach to diplomacy and search for ways to engage rivals and opponents in the service of US national security interests.
The normal and rather flaccid instincts of US allies, friends, partners and others around the world at such times is to gossip about the personalities that have retained or assumed power, wait and see what campaign promises are kept and which are dropped, express the hope for a more informed and sensitive US approach to regional concerns and prepare to study and eventually comment on whatever US initiatives emerge.
If countries wish to avoid the disenchantment that typically results from such a passive attitude, they must adopt a more imaginative and extrovert approach to the shaping of regional destinies. Staying silent or diffident, and then complaining when the US or others adopt strategies ill-suited for regional security, is unattractive and ineffective.
All countries in the Gulf are interested in taking more control over regional political trends. Until recently, what has been missing is a forum through which regional security ideas can be debated by all the appropriate participants.
There was no institution in the Gulf that brought together the GCC countries with the larger powers of the region, such as Iraq and Iran, other key powers in the Middle East, Europe and the US who have traditionally held much sway in the region, and Asian countries that are increasingly developing interests here.
In 2004 the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in collaboration with the Kingdom of Bahrain, created what has become the Manama Dialogue, a forum where the national security establishments of all states relevant to Gulf security could meet to develop stronger foundations for regional dialogue and co-operative approaches to security.
The Fifth IISS Manama Dialogue will convene tomorrow in Bahrain. The leader of the US delegation will be the US Secretary of Defence, Robert Gates, who will continue under President Obama. Deputy prime ministers, ministers of defence, ministers of foreign affairs, national security advisers and parliamentarians from another 25 states will meet to share their ideas for Gulf security and to conduct private, bilateral and multilateral meetings.
The Manama Dialogue offers a unique opportunity for Gulf states to take the initiative in influencing not just the US but others on the right approach to the crowded regional security agenda. The GCC states and the UAE in particular have interests in a number of issues, especially Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, maritime security and the campaign against terrorism, on which they could begin to shape revised policies.
How will the new US Administration engage with Iran? And when it does, how can the GCC ensure that its interests are secured? In the next round of potential negotiations with Iran, could key Gulf Arab states become part of the formal negotiating structure with Iran over the nuclear issue, just as regional Asian powers are part of the Six Party Talks on North Korea? After all, if Iran were to become a military nuclear power, it is the balance of power in the Gulf that would be most affected.
Even if they prefer to stay out of the nuclear discussions, Gulf Arab states should nevertheless lay out clearly what broader arrangements for Gulf security involving Iran would be complementary to their own interests, and thus avoid becoming simply “part of the package” in some future settlement with Iran.
Mr Obama said during his election campaign that his Administration would be prepared to meet Iran without preconditions. Against that background, it will be interesting to learn if Iran has an equally flexible approach to direct dialogue with the United States.
Recently, more GCC states have sent ambassadors to Iraq to give that country strengthened Arab diplomatic support. But in what other ways can Gulf Arab states help positively to shape the destiny of a fractured Iraqi polity that has now taken the sovereign decision to retain US assistance?
The US, the UK and their Nato partners are struggling in Afghanistan. More troops and more money will not be enough to turn the situation around. The establishment of some kind of regional contact group to channel diplomatic energies more effectively towards Afghanistan is important. Can such a group be composed, and could it become an effective interlocutor with Kabul?
The GCC states have considerable experience in counter-terrorism and de-radicalisation. The recent terror attacks in Mumbai have raised more concerns, not just about Indo-Pakistani conflict but the potential surge of sectarian conflict among Indians. Given the large immigrant labour population from South Asia in the Gulf, the region has a direct interest in promoting stability in that difficult part of the world.
All these issues and others will be on the table at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain. A strong set of views from Gulf leaders will help set the diplomatic agenda for 2009 in a way that puts the region more in charge of regional security, and make the continued support of outsiders, including the US, more aligned with clearly expressed regional preferences.
Dr John Chipman is Director-General and Chief Executive of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London
