15 December 2008: Dar Al-Hayat
By Elias Harfoush
Will the Iranians settle for the "carrot" which the old/new US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates offered them in Bahrain, when he said that his government under Barack Obama does not intend to change the regime in Tehran, but simply wants it to change its policies and improve its behavior? What is the use of such a carrot if the "stick" which the highest military official in Washington has waved at the Iranians is the regional one? Indeed, he has asked the countries in the region to play a more effective role in the framework of complete commitment to the financial and economic sanctions imposed on their neighbor on the Eastern coast of the Gulf.
Are the Iranians worried about the possibility of their regime being changed in the first place, in order to respond positively now to the reassurances brought by Gates? Especially that the policies which Gates wants Iran to change in its behavior in the region are the very policies that ensure the survival of the Iranian regime and its daily schedule. This leads one to seriously ponder: what would be left for this regime to do, if it changes those policies? Would there still be a difference in such a case between the regime staying or leaving?
Gates wants Iran to stop its nuclear program, which he considers to be "certainly aimed at producing nuclear weapons", and to stop supporting both Hezbollah and Hamas, who in his view seek to threaten two legitimate governments (in Lebanon and Palestine) though violent means. He also wants Tehran to stop supporting the armed groups that threaten stability in Iraq as well as the chances of success of Nouri Al-Maliki's government. Nevertheless, any observer could reach a simple conclusion, which is that, whether at the level of nuclear technology or wide-ranging regional activity, the Iranian regime's image, and therefore its ability to survive, has become directly connected to the role it is playing, despite the high costs Iran's economy has been sustaining as a result.
In return for complying with US demands, what is Gates offering Tehran in President Obama's name? He is offering to accept that this regime stay in power, which one can easily say is the least of the concerns of Tehran's leaders. Indeed, the latter know that they have a firm grip on the internal situation, with the means that are available to them to suppress and falsify the electoral process, in addition to the emergence of a "new society" in Iran, one that comprises more than 70% of the population, and that knows nothing of its country apart from the regime of the Islamic Republic… Those who do know anything else are either in prisons or abroad.
As for Gates's call to the countries of the Gulf region to contribute, alongside his country and the international community, in the tightening of economic sanctions on Iran, it has received a response from Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, who called for dialogue and cooperation with Iran, and also suggested Iran's entry into a regional organization that would include all the countries of the region. A similar stance was also asserted by Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, who called for dialogue rather than confrontation.
Naturally, the countries of the Gulf region find themselves forced to commit to UN resolutions regarding sanctions against Iran, and they do this within the framework of their existing financial and commercial ties with Iran. Nevertheless, these states are well aware that calls from afar which aim at escalating the confrontation with Iran differ from what close neighbors can bear. Indeed, those states will bear the burden of any confrontation, whether because of its internal political repercussions in their countries, or - if the situation degenerates - because of the military consequences. Certainly the Gulf States cannot keep their countries at a safe distance from the fires of any confrontation, between Iran on one hand and the West (and Israel?) on the other, on the shores of the Gulf.
The question remains: Was Robert Gates speaking in Manama in the name of the departing administration or in that of the coming one? And if those are the "omens" of the future relationship between Obama and Iran, then how will this reflect on the region's other issues, in each of which Iran plays a role that cannot be underestimated?
