Out in the real world, though, despite the rosy picture of "progress" that U.S. Army General David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker offered Congress this week as part of the Bush gang's war-promoting propaganda campaign, it's the United States and the West, collectively, that appears to be getting kicked - hard - in many different places. So notes the rather disheartening and alarming "Strategic Survey 2007," a just-released report about the state of world affairs compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank.
In the well-insulated bubble in which George W. Bush, coddled by his handlers, lives and from which he views the world, the U.S. is "kicking ass," as the self-styled "war president" remarked to Australia's deputy prime minister, Mark Vaile, last week. (Sydney Morning Herald)
Out in the real world, though, despite the rosy picture of "progress" that U.S. Army General David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker offered Congress this week as part of the Bush gang's war-promoting propaganda campaign, it's the United States and the West, collectively, that appears to be getting kicked - hard - in many different places. So notes the rather disheartening and alarming "Strategic Survey 2007," a just-released report about the state of world affairs compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank.
At a press conference at which IISS reps presented their report, which covers the period from late 2006 until the present, Nigel Inkster, the research outfit's director of transnational threats and political risk, was asked "whether Al-Qaeda had the capacity now to carry out a 9/11-style attack and whether it was stronger than in [2001]." Inkster, a former director of MI6, the British-government, intelligence-gathering agency, replied tersely: "Both." (Guardian)
The new IISS report notes that, this year, the U.S. has "suffered a loss of international authority as a result of the failure to impose order in Iraq." As a result, countries like Iran have "flexed their muscles regionally[,] more confident in their relative power, while radical groups [have] sought to discredit the leaders of those countries who maintained solid relations with the U.S." "Strategic Survey 2207" argues that the "core" of the Al-Qaeda organization "is proving adaptable and resilient, and has retained the ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the Western world....Plots that have come to light in Europe and elsewhere point to a growing trend of Islamic radicalization. The long-term challenge is to confront the extremist ideology which gives rise to terrorism and which Al-Qaeda has shown great skill...in propagating....Overall, what is referred to as the 'single narrative' that sees Muslims as victims of non-Muslim aggression, needs to be addressed, both in the Islamic world and elsewhere...."
On Iraq, a summary of the report says: "The government headed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was supposed to be one of national unity. However, two key Shia parties and more importantly the main Sunni political block left the government after disagreements with the prime minister....Maliki's constitutional and political weakness lies at the heart of this problem. [He] does not have a great deal of power to impose his will on a fractious cabinet. [He] is only the deputy leader of a comparatively small Shia party with no militia....Until Maliki manages to accrue more power in the office of the prime minister he will be unable to control let alone remove sectarian actors scattered throughout his government." Meanwhile, the Bush gang appears to have given up on al-Maliki.
On Afghanistan, which has seen a "massive increase in opium poppy cultivation," the think tank finds that, today, almost 30 percent "of the country's [gross domestic producty] comes from the illicit drugs trade[,] which provides 92% of the world heroin supply." Afghan President Hamid Karzai "recognizes the need to bring illegal cultivation of poppy to an end but...sees the problem as being long-term and is against short-term measures such as crop spraying, which have unknown consequences and may play into the hands of the Taliban."
On Iran, which, in the near future, "may be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear
weapon," the IISS report notes: "By our calculation, 2009 or 2010 remains the worst-case prediction....[I]t is evident that the U.S. is trying to hedge against diplomatic failure by trying to build the conditions for containment of Iran. Major arms transfers to the region have been proposed, but the question remains what strategic posture the [Gulf Cooperation Council] states feel able publicly to adopt towards Iran. Most...would be alarmed by a nuclear Iran...but equally concerned by the consequences to them[selves] of any military strike to preempt that capacity. The twin worries...about a nuclear Iran and a preemptive U.S strike capture accurately the...dilemma to which many [Persian] Gulf leaders are hostage: Iran is their permanent, but potentially hegemonic neighbor[,] and the U.S. an unpopular but necessary ally."
On Afghanistan, which has seen a "massive increase in opium poppy cultivation," the think tank finds that, today, almost 30 percent "of the country's [gross domestic producty] comes from the illicit drugs trade[,] which provides 92% of the world heroin supply." Afghan President Hamid Karzai "recognizes the need to bring illegal cultivation of poppy to an end but...sees the problem as being long-term and is against short-term measures such as crop spraying, which have unknown consequences and may play into the hands of the Taliban."
On Iran, which, in the near future, "may be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon," the IISS report notes: "By our calculation, 2009 or 2010 remains the worst-case prediction....[I]t is evident that the U.S. is trying to hedge against diplomatic failure by trying to build the conditions for containment of Iran. Major arms transfers to the region have been proposed, but the question remains what strategic posture the [Gulf Cooperation Council] states feel able publicly to adopt towards Iran. Most...would be alarmed by a nuclear Iran...but equally concerned by the consequences to them[selves] of any military strike to preempt that capacity. The twin worries...about a nuclear Iran and a preemptive U.S strike capture accurately the...dilemma to which many [Persian] Gulf leaders are hostage: Iran is their permanent, but potentially hegemonic neighbor[,] and the U.S. an unpopular but necessary ally."
The big picture, looking ahead: "China is too strong to be seen as just a developing nation, though still too weak...to shape its regional environment alone. The U.S. is too strong to stay on the sidelines of global events, but too weak to implement an agenda that it has set without wide agreement. Russia has accumulated great economic power at the state level but wields it in a way that weakens its reputation and causes distrust. Europe has reputation and economic strength but limited strategic vision and ever-declining military power to support it....In 2008, managing nuclear proliferation and terrorism will remain the priorities. But the unsettled relations, rivalries and shifting strengths of the powers that see themselves as custodians of the state system will make the necessary coordination of approaches to these threats immensely hard."
