In its 2007 Strategic Survey published last week, London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) – one of the world’s leading security think tanks – says a number of “regional jihadist groups”, notably in Mesopotamia and Maghreb (north and west Africa) had not only sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda, but also begun demonstrating ambitions “beyond their parochial concerns” in support of al-Qaeda’s global objectives. This forms part of the increasing evidence to suggest that ‘core’ al-Qaeda is proving “adaptable and resilient, and has retained an ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the Western World”.
A growing network of cells spread throughout the world means the al-Qaeda brand is as strong as ever and capable of matching the devastation witnessed on 9/11, leading security experts have warned.
In its 2007 Strategic Survey published last week, London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) – one of the world’s leading security think tanks – says a number of “regional jihadist groups”, notably in Mesopotamia and Maghreb (north and west Africa) had not only sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda, but also begun demonstrating ambitions “beyond their parochial concerns” in support of al-Qaeda’s global objectives. This forms part of the increasing evidence to suggest that ‘core’ al-Qaeda is proving “adaptable and resilient, and has retained an ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the Western World”.
Dr Rohan Gunaratna, author of ‘Inside Al Qaeda’, agrees: “Al-Qaeda is accepting new like-minded groups to adopt its ideology of global jihad and operational tactics of suicide.” He argues that since the US-led coalition dislodged the terror unit from Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has reconstituted itself as “a diffused network of groups and cells bound by a common ideology” in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), situated between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“Operating out of FATA, al-Qaeda has unleashed a dispersed and a vibrant threat by spreading its ideology, globally. It has galvanised and mobilised many disparate Islamist groups in the south creating an al-Qaeda movement. With representation from more than two dozen groups, FATA has become the de-facto headquarters of the global jihad movement,” he suggests.
The foiling of an alleged plot in Germany and the alleged airliner plot last year at Heathrow Airport in the UK, provide two recent examples of the threat of Islamic radicalisation for the West. Home-grown terrorism was seen as a significant emerging threat for business by 98% of attendees at Lloyd’s terrorism conference this summer, and the IISS believes it will take “decades” to defeat the “long-term challenge” from al-Qaeda in the West, suggesting that “more fluid ways” should be found to integrate Muslim minorities into European societies. “That means looking again at issues as complex as the relative balance between individual and community rights and between secular and religious visions of social organisations,” says John Chipman, IISS Director General.
But this is a long-term strategy, and in the meantime al-Qaeda still has the hunger to terrorise the West. Dr Gunaratna believes it is actively planning its next attack, concluding: “Directly, and through its associated groups, al-Qaeda is offering research-intensive training to home-grown and other terrorists to conduct spectacular attacks especially against the US, its Allies and its friends. Despite being the most hunted terrorist leadership, al-Qaeda is directing, facilitating, supporting, and approving key operations against its enemies from FATA.”
