It is difficult to argue with much of what the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) says about al-Qaida in its annual survey of all the terrible things that could possibly happen in the world in the near future. There is indeed increasing evidence "that 'core' al-Qaida is proving adaptable and resilient, and has retained an ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the western world despite the attrition it has suffered".
Equally, the "threat from Islamist terrorism remains as high as ever". The war on terror, as the IISS say, has far from achieved its aims. Al-Qaida will, it is true, take decades to eliminate. However, I am not entirely certain the threat is set to get worse, as the IISS predict. It has evolved over the years and will evolve further, but are we on the brink of a global conflagration? I do not think so.
We are certainly living through a period of political consciousness not seen in the core Middle East countries since the retreat of the colonial powers, since 1967, 1973 or arguably since 1979. Equally, that consciousness - and its offshoots of radicalisation and mobilisation of militants committed to violent action against civilians in the west and elsewhere who are deemed to be targets due to their complicity in decisions taken by democratically elected governments - has spread around the world in a unprecedented way. But there is some good news that should not be forgotten. Bin Laden hoped that his propaganda by deed, particularly 9/11, would provoke a mass uprising in the Muslim world and the downfall of the regimes he detests in the Middle East. It has not done so. And even the best efforts of the at best clumsy, at worst criminally negligent, US administration have not sparked that mass uprising either.
All the polls that we have available show that support for suicide bombing - excepting the particular circumstances of Israel-Palestine - drops rapidly when populations are exposed to its reality. So in Jordan, popular support for militants nosedived after the hotel bombings there. The same thing happened in Indonesia - the world's largest Islamic country. There is little widespread support for such tactics in Afghanistan either where bombers have shown an astonishing ineptitude and an unerring ability to kill civilians (though far fewer than allied air strikes do).
In Europe, there is a problem. It is linked to issues of identity, integration and economics and their interaction with global ideologies and trends - and it is very serious. But again it should not be exaggerated. Last week saw many headlines about radical Islam coming to Germany. Three Germans were caught more or less red-handed preparing bomb-making materials. Yet there are more than 3 million Muslims in Germany and an estimated 1.6 billion in the world and, angry as many might be, and numerous though those who have bought the "single narrative" of west v east are, the number that are "al-Qaida" is minisucle.
One excellent element in the IISS report is its breadth. This goes some way to right an imbalance. The IISS point out that climate change could have global security implications on a par with nuclear war unless urgent action is taken, underlining how global warming will hit crop yields and water availability everywhere, causing great human suffering and leading to regional strife. This is often forgotten in the rush to focus on terrorism. It should not be.
