LONDON -- Britain is "running away" from Iraq, partly due to Prime Minister Gordon Brown's desire to distance himself from Tony Blair, experts said Tuesday.
Brown said Monday that British troop numbers would be cut by more than half to 2,500 by early next year as Iraqis assume control of Basra province in the south, while one official suggested all troops could be out by the end of 2008.
Britain had 5,500 troops based in and around the port city of Basra at the start of September and 7,000 soldiers in Afghanistan -- a number that will shortly rise to 7,700.
The head of the army, General Richard Dannatt, has warned that British troops in the NATO force are overstretched and need urgent reinforcement to be effective against the Taliban.
The analysts said Brown, who has forged a reputation for caution, was taking an enormous gamble because of uncertainty about the future security situation in Basra.
Toby Dodge, from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), and retired army major Charles Heyman, editor of Armed Forces of the United Kingdom, said the strategy was in part due to political expediency.
The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq is still divisive in Britain, not least in Brown's own governing Labour Party. Blair's decision to back US President George W. Bush hastened his departure from office earlier this year.
As finance minister, Brown both voted for and bankrolled the war but "Prime Minister Brown needs to prove to the British people that he is different to Blair", Dodge told Agence France-Presse.
He said that it was "far too early" to reduce troop levels and the withdrawal was likely to be seen by the militia in the south as a victory and could fuel violence.
"In declaring victory and pulling out, Brown is not telling the truth," said Dodge, an Iraq and Middle East specialist at the London-based global security think-tank.
"I think in pulling troops out Brown has clearly put his own electoral chance ahead of the relationship with the United States, which makes him very different from Blair...
"The British government is running away from Iraq."
Retired colonel Bob Stewart, a commander of British forces in Bosnia, said insurgents would give troops a "damn good kicking" as they withdrew.
"If we leave Basra in a terrific mess, it is a disaster. It will be just like the way the Americans left Vietnam," he was quoted as saying in Tuesday's Daily Telegraph newspaper.
Heyman, who said the plan was "fair" and in line with policy, said cost could be a factor at a time when government finances are being squeezed.
Britain spent about 956 million pounds (1.4 billion euros, 1.9 billion dollars) in Iraq in 2006-7, according to Ministry of Defense figures. Just under five billion pounds has been spent since 2003.
Heyman said Brown was a "hostage to fortune" in announcing a withdrawal. If successful, the gradual British drawdown could herald US troop reductions in northern Iraq.
But there were political as well as military risks if the situation in the south got worse, he added.
Accurate details about the current security situation in Basra were difficult to come by, despite claims the withdrawal of a small British force from a base in central Basra last month had improved security, he told Agence France-Presse.
Brown's reputation would be on the line if the situation deteriorates and Britain may not have enough troops to provide proper military back-up to the Iraqis.
"He may have to go cap in hand to the Americans. That will be a real political blow. It would be tantamount to saying to the international community, 'I got it wrong'," Heyman said.
"This (decision) is unusual for Gordon Brown. It's him taking a step into the unknown. It's a 50 percent chance."
Brown's assessment that security had improved and the British withdrawal was not an admission of defeat was the "upbeat" version that omitted military commanders' views of worst case scenarios, he added.
As for the possibility of all British troops being withdrawn by the end of 2008, he said it was a "sensible" aim, adding: "If all goes well it's possible. But it's unlikely all will go as smoothly as they hope...
"They forget to say... 'if the situation in Basra continues to improve."
