US President George W. Bush heads to Latin America in little over a week amid mounting criticism, primarily from Democrats, that Washington's foreign policy in the region is a shambles. Its staunchest ally, Colombia, is embroiled in an embarrassing scandal linking paramilitaries with public officials while Venezuela is steadily extending its influence, notably over Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Bush's visit also comes as the US National Intelligence is expressing concern about Venezuela's appetite for acquiring arms and the threat of a regional arms race.
The arrest in Colombia of Jorge Noguera, the head of the intelligence service (DAS) from 2002 to late 2005, on 22 February was a huge blow to US-Colombian relations, coming on top of the arrests of nine legislators loyal to President Alvaro Uribe for alleged links to the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC). At the very least it raises questions about Uribe's judgement. Not only was Noguera his personal friend, but the US worked closely with the DAS.
Noguera is accused of supplying the AUC with a hit list of unionists and academics who were then killed. This is likely to lead Democrats in Congress to question not just the size of military assistance to Colombia under the new budget but also US ties with Colombia at the expense of other countries in the region. US Representative William D. Delahunt (Dem), said this week that the parapolitical revelations "evoke memories of the 1980s in Central America. I think you're going to see hearings on these issues." He added that, "what we have is a Latin America policy that is an afterthought". There are signs that Democrats, and some Republicans, are trying to change that. A bipartisan delegation from the US Senate pointedly avoided visiting Colombia during a mini-tour over the New Year: they visited Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru.
In a blistering editorial on 25 February entitled "Colombia political scandal imperilling US ties", The Boston Globe argued that Bush's visit to the region from 8 to 14 March came as "the United States' key partner on the continent is engulfed in an extraordinary scandal that threatens to undermine the credibility of US alliances and policy priorities from Mexico to Argentina."
The Globe quoted two experts from prominent Washington think-tanks. "Who have we staked all of our political capital on in Latin America? Uribe," Adam Isacson of the Center for International Policy said. "If this scandal engulfs him (Uribe) or his armed forces, it will be a devastating blow to the whole design of US policy." Dan Restrepo of the Center for American Progress, was quoted as saying, "We'll see a real emphasis on Mexico and Brazil, on ethanol and biofuel - an attempt to elevate other regional players... Part of the silver lining in all this could be a wake-up call to pursue all of our interests in Latin America."
There are signs this might be starting to happen. On 27 February Daniel Sullivan, Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs, met Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega in Managua and underlined US readiness to boost economic development and to deepen democracy in Nicaragua. On the same day Randall Tobias, the director of Foreign Assistance and Administrator of USAID, was in Quito to discuss similar projects. He emphasised "the very cordial meetings" he had held with Ecuadorean officials.
No major change of policy likely
Despite these efforts to gently woo some of the main allies of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, the geostrategic importance of Uribe as a counterbalance to Chavez, particularly at a time when the US is questioning Venezuela's acquisition of arms, is not going to change. Addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee on 27 February Michael McConnell, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), said that Venezuela constituted a "global threat". He said that Chavez "sees himself as potentially the replacement for Castro in terms of leading a bloc that would be opposed to the United States," He did not overstate the arms threat but he insisted that Venezuela's arms purchases went "significantly beyond what they would need for their own national defence" and that there was a real threat it could trigger an arms race in the region.
Last week the prestigious Argentine think-tank Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoria, released a detailed study, citing Venezuelan military sources, estimating that current Venezuelan arms purchases involved almost US$8bn. It said that Caracas was negotiating the purchase of nine submarines (it currently has two) which would, at a stroke, give Venezuela the largest submarine fleet in the region: Peru has the most submarines (six) followed by Brazil, five. Speaking at the launch of the 2007 Military Balance in Washington in early February, Christopher Langton, the editor, raised concerns about "the amount of weapons Venezuela is buying and (its) close relations with Bolivia." "The border exchange of weapons looks like logic and real," he added. The Bolivian Vice-President Alvaro Garcia Linera emphatically denied this was the case.
Petrodiplomacy
The ostensible threat of Venezuelan arms purchases and petrodiplomacy to US hegemony in the region has been the subject of numerous articles, some better informed than others, over the course of the last few years. It is axiomatic that Venezuela is competing for influence with the US. More interesting is that Chavez is forcing the Bush administration to change tack.
Ortega, for all the talk of changing his stripes, would almost certainly have been persona non grata a few years ago. Now the US wants to deal with him and this can only be because he is pursuing closer ties with Chavez. Ortega flew to Caracas on 23 February to seal what the Nicaraguan opposition is describing as "a parallel budget". The two presidents agreed that Venezuela would send 4m barrels of oil to Nicaragua in 2007, worth some US$320m. On 5 and 6 March a joint Nicaraguan-Venezuelan committee will be set up in Managua to evaluate health and education projects including the "great literacy crusade".
On the same day Ortega arrived in Caracas, a Venezuelan tanker docked in Ecuador's northern port of Balao in Esmeraldas province carrying 200,000 barrels of diesel, which is expected to save Quito some US$60m a year according to President Rafael Correa, who took part in a welcoming ceremony. Two further shipments will arrive in mid March. For each barrel of diesel, Ecuador will send back 1.4 barrels of heavy crude. The choice of tanker was symbolic: it was named Manuela Saenz, the lover of Simon Bolivar who was born in Quito.
New ambassador
Ecuador has appointed a new ambassador to Venezuela: retired General Rene Vargas, a close friend of Chavez, who even wrote a book with him, "The civil military union for the success of the revolution". Vargas said that Venezuela's state oil company, Pdvsa, would invest in a US$4bn project to build an oil refinery in the port of Manta in the south-western province of Manabi. Meanwhile, Ecuador's energy and mines minister, Alberto Acosta, said that Ecuador would probably rejoin Opec, which it left in 1992, by the end of June.
