Andrew Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London thinks Iran merely "lobbed an old missile up in the air to prove it can" in the face of the 21 February UN Security Council deadline requiring it to cease its nuclear enrichment programme, a deadline that Iran ignored.
Confusion reigns among defence analysts over Iran's claim to have launched a rocket to a sub-orbital altitude. The country's existing 2000-kilometre-range tactical missiles are already known to be capable of reaching that altitude, so analysts can't understand why Iran should brag about it. Might it mean that an attempted orbital mission failed?
On Sunday, the Iranian state broadcaster's website said Iran had "fired a missile able to reach space". This was later revised to say the rocket "would rise to about 150 kilometres" before landing by parachute. Low-Earth orbit starts at 200 kilometres.
"My guess is that this is a cobbled-together explanation for something that didn't quite work," says Rob Hewson, a rocket specialist at Janes, the UK-based military publisher. He doubts Iran's 1970s-era rocket technologies are up to orbital standards and suspects it may be "grandstanding".
"We haven't any confirmation that this launch took place at all," says Rick Lehner of the US Missile Defense Agency in Washington DC. If Iran is getting closer to orbital technology, he says, "that would demonstrate proper staging of rocket motors" and the capability to launch a long-range missile.
Andrew Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London thinks Iran merely "lobbed an old missile up in the air to prove it can" in the face of the 21 February UN Security Council deadline requiring it to cease its nuclear enrichment programme, a deadline that Iran ignored.
