What is South Africa up to? Just as it looked as if the United Nations Security Council had agreed new, tighter sanctions on Iran — and as if the old ones were beginning to bite — South Africa throws a spoke in the wheel.
Meanwhile Russia, which spent much of last year trying to dilute such sanctions itself, has now emerged as a helpful broker, leaning on Iran but also offering options to break the deadlock.
The greatest obstacle to new sanctions is still probably China, sitting quietly on the sidelines but unwilling to see its huge and intricate commercial links with Iran jeopardised.
In theory South Africa, which has just taken over the presidency of the Security Council, does not have the power on its own to block a deal. Only the five permanent members can do that; South Africa is one of the ten elected members. But its obstruction is hugely destructive to the efforts to put pressure on Iran. President Ahmadinejad is expected to travel to New York to confront the council; its strongest card had been its united front — until now.
South Africa has called for all sanctions to be suspended for 90 days to allow for more talks; it also wants the embargos, travel bans and bank curbs that the council agreed last year to be scrapped. This comes despite many signs that the sanctions are having an effect; Iran’s central bank has told the Government to curb spending.
“South Africa does not want elected members to be taken for granted,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, proliferation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It has also loudly been saying that countries’ rights to nuclear technology should not be restricted.”
South Africa, which has a sophisticated nuclear programme, does not yet have advanced uranium enrichment or reprocessing capability — the controversial technologies that Iran wants to master, which can make fuel for power stations but also make fissile material for warheads.
South Africa also has “a sense of moral authority”, Mr Fitzpatrick said, from being the only country to have possessed nuclear weapons — six of them — and to have dismantled them in the early 1990s, later verified by a UN watchdog.
If South Africa can be talked down from its show of strength, Russia’s latest suggestion offers a way forward. It is threatening not to supply fuel for Iran’s first reactor unless the country stops enrichment, its toughest talk so far. In return, it will offer to enrich fuel for Iran on its own soil.
It may be, then, that China, holding a veto on the council, is the greatest obstacle to a tough new sanctions package. It has signed 25-year deals worth more than $100 billion to buy oil and gas from Iran and to develop the Yadavaran oilfield.
It is also believed to have made large arms sales to Iran. It is no doubt relieved that, for the moment, South Africa has drawn the fire of Britain, the US and the other council members pushing hard for a deal.
