March 2007

Iran releases letter and video of sailors "The Iranian Foreign Ministry is not in charge here," said Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "They're having to work out a face-saving diplomatic solution, but I don't think the Revolutionary Guards want a diplomatic solution. So it's going to be hard to choreograph something when you have internal friction."
Britain pushes for international help in Iran "I think it initially would mean other nations taking the step that (Prime Minister Tony) Blair said yesterday about having no bilateral dealings with Iran until this is resolved," said Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the London-based Institute for Strategic Studies. "It wouldn't require them to cut off trade with Iran or other steps that would impinge on economic relations. Stopping official contacts in solidarity with Britain would be...
Iran Prickly Over British Appeal to UN There is almost certainly a policy struggle going on in Tehran over how to handle this situation, and the Foreign Ministry is losing. The Revolutionary Guards have the upper hand,'' said Mark Fitzpatrick, an Iran expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.
Teheran risking war just to save face By Dr Patrick Cronin, Director of Studies; Editor, Adelphi Papers
Fury as Iran shows footage of captured sailor Patrick Cronin, director of studies at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said the crisis represented a counterattack by Tehran radicals after months of international pressure over Iran's nuclear programme. "They clearly want to change the subject. They want to go on the offensive."
Iran's shift on IAEA may offer 'insurance' "Iran is honouring the minimum legal requirements of the Safeguards Agreement, but giving the IAEA headaches in every legal grey area," said Mark Fitzpatrick, chief nuclear analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Tehran last year withdrew voluntary compliance with snap inspections at sites not declared to be nuclear-related. It forced the IAEA to remove its Iran section head by declaring him persona non grata, and banned re-entry to 38 inspectors from...
The Mecca factor By Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior Fellow for Gulf Security
Iran indicates way out of dispute While this type of incident can lead to conflict, the government is conscious that it must not let that happen,'' said Dana Allin, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Success will come with a low-key approach.''
How to preserve the North Korean nuclear deal Suspicions of North Korean interest in uranium enrichment were aroused by indications that Pakistan's so-called "Dr Strangelove", Abdul Qadeer Khan, had given centrifuges to Pyongyang in exchange for missiles. But President Pervez Musharraf has disclosed that North Korea got only two dozen prototype centrifuges; not nearly enough to conduct even low-level enrichment. He has confirmed, however, that these centrifuges included Pakistan's advanced P-2 model. That is what made the CIA...
General: U.S. captures car bomb ringleaders It is difficult to break up an entire network at once, said Toby Dodge, an Iraqi expert with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Car bomb rings are often a collaboration between Islamic radicals and specially trained former members of Saddam Hussein's government, he said. Units are assigned different tasks, such as smuggling jihadists into Iraq, building bombs or choosing targets, Dodge said. "It's a fluid, multifaceted operation," he said. "The way...
Blair confident sailors were in Iraqi waters Britain and the United States have said the sailors and marines were intercepted Friday just after they completed a search of a civilian vessel in the Iraqi part of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, where the border with Iran has historically been disputed. The British government has few easy options for freeing it sailors, said Patrick Cronin, the director of studies at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. He said that a rescue operation was out of the question, leaving...
The Best Way to Run a War French troops have won high praise for their performance under the U.N. flag in Lebanon, keeping on passable terms with both Hizbullah and the Israelis. An EU force has successfully replaced NATO in Bosnia, and last year a mixed European contingent from 19 nations oversaw U.N.-backed elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, newly emerged from a decade of civil war that claimed millions of lives. Says Dana Allin of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London: "With...
Iran to limit cooperation amid dispute Non-proliferation expert Mark Fitzpatrick said: "In various ways, Iran is pushing the envelope toward the very edge of what are absolute legal requirements." Fitzpatrick, an analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank in London, said that Iran would now not have to report future modifications at Natanz, where it aims to ultimately have over 50,000 centrifuges running.
Iran Standoff Deepens As CFR Director of Studies Gary Samore said in a recent speech before the International Institute for Strategic Studies, since the first resolution's passage, the balance has begun to shift, given Moscow and Beijing's support for graduated punitive measures.
Sailors fall foul of emerging superpower "Getting rid of the Taliban and then getting rid of Saddam, basically gave Iran a free ride in the region," said Mamoun Fandy, senior fellow for Gulf security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "With the collapse of the Iraqi state, the whole balance of power in the Gulf went out of control, and we moved away from a world of nation states to the world of sectarianism, with Saudi Arabia viewing itself as the centre of gravity of Sunni Islam and by default, Iran...
US and UK fail to find smoking gun "I don't doubt that the Iranians do have very great influence in Iraq, but they are not manipulating everything behind the scenes," argued Toby Dodge of Queen Mary College, London. "They can keep the pot boiling, and raise or lower the temperature, but they don't create things. "
Italy opens Pandora's box with hostage swap Still, the Taliban may find Italy's groundbreaking hostage swap a tough act to follow, said Colonel Christopher Langton at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Although they freed the Italian reporter, they beheaded his driver and his translator's whereabouts are still unknown. "They have not kept their side of the deal and they have killed an innocent Afghan, which is definitely against the culture of Afghanistan," Langton said.
Spring 2007 - - Survival - American Power and Allied Restraint: Lessons of Iraq By Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs and Editor, Survival Survival Vol 49 no 1, Spring 2007 American Power and Allied Restraint: Lessons of Iraq
U.N. Set to Debate New Sanctions on Iran Iran is on the outs with its longtime ally, Russia. Russia had been protecting Iran from the stronger sanctions the U.N. Security Council wants to impose for Iran's refusal to suspend its nuclear enrichment program. In fact, Russia has been helping build a nuclear power plant at Bushehr in southern Iran. But now, Iran is behind on payments for that project and Russia has suspended work at the plant. There are reports that Russia won't send the fuel to Bushehr until Iran freezes nuclear...
Getting the EU Back Into Eurasia By Raffaello Pantucci, Research Associate