This New Year's Day, Germany took on the rotating presidencies of both the European Union and the G-8. This chronological alignment presents Chancellor Angela Merkel with a unique opportunity to steer international affairs. The long shadows of history, though, mean no one is more reluctant to accept German leadership than the Germans themselves.
The timing also doesn't seem fortuitous, with the EU in apparent limbo until the French pick a president in May and Tony Blair hands over the keys to 10 Downing Street to Gordon Brown. But waiting for national power shifts before asserting oneself at the EU stage isn't wise for Berlin. Think back to the hope brought with the victory of Chancellor Merkel, who soon found that domestic issues required more attention than a stagnant eurocracy. Why would a President Ségolène Royal or Nicolas Sarkozy be any different?
On the global stage, the G-8 baton finally passed from Russia's awkward grip while U.S. President George W. Bush enters his twilight years, weakened by Iraq and political setbacks. This leadership crisis could not have come at a more dangerous moment. The world faces the imminent threats of a nuclear Iran, a proliferating North Korea and an Iraqi quagmire with no magic solutions on the horizon.
Given the distracted or weakened position of the other major Western powers, Germany can step up to the plate. It already takes a more proactive posture in international affairs, with its soldiers deployed from Kosovo to Afghanistan to Congo. Germany's foreign minister plays a key role in Iran and Central Asia and the Caucasus.
But German engagement still falls short of true leadership, not least at home. Senior policy makers even now refuse to engage the public in a serious discussion about foreign affairs, content to be seen as playing a "constructive" role. Yet as Afghanistan is demonstrating, being constructive from the back seat is difficult. Germany is coming in for sharp criticism because of its refusal to accept greater operational risks in the south of the country, where its NATO allies are doing the real fighting against the Taliban.
No one expects Chancellor Merkel to get her soldiers involved in Iraq. That doesn't mean she couldn't try to use her presidency to push regional and other European players to engage there. The EU has already given some €720 million to Iraq since 2003, and recently opened offices in Baghdad. Much more could be done. For example, Germany should push for expanding the rather limited advisory role the EU has played so far in the field of police training and security sector reform. No matter what one thought about the decision to go to war in 2003, Iraq is everybody's problem now.
Aside from Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and the situation in the Palestinian territories all demand utmost attention from the EU. Germany should use its contacts to help the EU play a more active role in bringing the current crisis within the Palestinian Authority under control, act as an intermediary with nations that the U.S. is unwilling to talk to (as the U.K. is currently doing with Syria), and work to get the Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab states more involved in resolving the stalemates in Iran and Iraq.
As an honest broker, Chancellor Merkel should take a greater lead in European initiatives rather than waiting, as past chancellors used to do, for a French lead to follow. Ms. Merkel could use the opportunity to follow up on her pro-American sympathies and take a more active lead in remolding the trans-Atlantic agenda. She has already called for a new grand debate about NATO's strategic purpose. If she is serious, now is the time to sell this to other European allies.
Germany will not be able to completely fill the leadership vacuum in Europe and beyond. But the world is looking like an increasingly dark place, and Germany's new leader can shed a bit of light.
Messrs. Giegerich and Pantucci are research associates at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
