Non-proliferation analyst Mark Fitzpatrick, of the London think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "Iran will be looking for a way to escape further sanctions."
Fitzpatrick said: "Larijani might be willing to table again a short suspension that he wanted to table in September talks with Solana but found the hardliners in Tehran opposing."
Since Iranian hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is "now on the defensive in Tehran, Larijani might have more room to manoeuvre but what he has to offer will likely fall short of the Security Council's resolution for a verified suspension," Fitzpatrick said.
By Michael Adler
VIENNA, Feb 8, 2007 (AFP) - European countries will use informal contacts with top Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani at a security conference in Germany this weekend to try to defuse the crisis over Iran's atomic ambitions, diplomats told AFP.
The goal is to get Iran "to come up with some realistic, achievable proposals" to meet the UN's demand for it to suspend uranium enrichment, a European diplomat said in Vienna, where the UN watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is headquartered.
The crisis is at a clear standoff as Iran rejects the UN Security Council resolution of December 23 which imposed limited sanctions to force it to stop enriching uranium, which makes fuel for civilian nuclear power reactors but also explosive material for atom bombs.
This process is at the heart of US charges that Iran is hiding work to develop nuclear weapons behind what Tehran claims is a peaceful program to generate electricity.
A second diplomat said Switzerland was "playing a secret role to carry some water and find countries that want to seek common ground with Iran and use carrots and not just sticks," referring to offering Iran benefits if it froze enrichment work.
Germany would also lead this initiative, at the Conference on Security Policy being held in Munich from Friday to Sunday, diplomats said.
Germany's partners Britain and France in the EU-3 lineup which has negotiated with Iran were taking a more hardline back seat. They want to see Iran first take the step of ceasing uranium enrichment, the diplomats said.
But French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin said in an interview in the Financial Times on Tuesday that the West "must combine dialogue with firmness in our approach (to Iran). I think the US and Europe can go further in dialogue and proposals."
The Security Council could impose tougher sanctions if a report by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei later this month shows Tehran continuing to defy the Security Council, especially since Iran is pressing ahead with building an underground plant at Natanz for industrial-level uranium enrichment.
The message in Munich will be "very clear" as the Europeans will urge Larijani to have Iran "re-engage (with the international community). Don't dig yourself deeper in the famous hole," the first diplomat said.
Larijani said Monday that he hoped he could have "good talks and negotiations," in Munich, in comments reported by Iran's ISNA news agency.
But in a sign the stalemate is not about to end anytime soon, he ruled out meeting with US officials on the sidelines of the event.
Like the Davos economic forum, the Munich meeting gathers key world leaders in a framework that favors informal contacts.
New US Defence Secretary Robert Gates will be there as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who led the EU's now stalled talks with Iran.
The European diplomat said: "I don't expect breakthroughs from that meeting (with Larijani). This is hopefully a chance to sound out feelers and not more."
Another diplomat, who like others interviewed asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, said the bottom line remained, for the United States and its European allies, that Iran must first suspend uranium enrichment.
If this were verified by the IAEA, the Security Council would then suspend its sanctions, as the resolution makes clear, the diplomat said.
Non-proliferation analyst Mark Fitzpatrick, of the London think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "Iran will be looking for a way to escape further sanctions."
Fitzpatrick said: "Larijani might be willing to table again a short suspension that he wanted to table in September talks with Solana but found the hardliners in Tehran opposing."
Since Iranian hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is "now on the defensive in Tehran, Larijani might have more room to manoeuvre but what he has to offer will likely fall short of the Security Council's resolution for a verified suspension," Fitzpatrick said.
