Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: "This is a startling assessment, one that the US has never suggested before. What the US is saying is that they stopped. This explains why Washington has been willing to take a slow diplomatic route in the [UN] Security Council."
04 December 2007: Financial Times
By Daniel Dombey in Washington and Stephen Fidler and,James Blitz in London
US intelligence has downgraded its assessment of the risks posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions with a surprise declaration yesterday that Tehran halted its military nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and may not have restarted it.
The conclusion undermines arguments for prompt US military action against Iran to stop its nuclear programme and provides support for intensifying international diplomatic and economic pressures on Tehran.
A new National Intelligence Estimate, released yesterday, distils the views of relevant US intelligence agencies and provides the most comprehensive and nuanced unclassifed picture ever presented of how they view Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities.
It says Tehran halted its weapons programme four years ago "primarily in response to international pressure", and suggests Tehran's decisions "are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs".
The last declassified assessment on the subject, in 2005, judged that the weapons programme was continuing and said "with high confidence that Iran is currently determined to develop nuclear weapons".
Since then, leading US officials have used this report to claim Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, which senior intelligence officials now believe is not now the case. Yesterday's report said: "Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons programme suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005."
Stephen Hadley, White House national security adviser, said the findings confirmed that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remained "a serious problem". But he added: "The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically without the use of force as the administration has been trying to do."
The assessment distinguishes between the military's weapons efforts - which Iran has never admitted - and its continuing uranium enrichment programme, which is public. The report estimates the public programme could produce enough material for a nuclear weapon in 2009 at the earliest - but more likely in the 2010-15 timeframe. Iran is also continuing to develop longer-range missiles, it notes.
It states that Iran would probably use covert facilities - rather than its declared nuclear sites - for the production of weapons-grade uranium. If true, this would reduce the efficacy of military action.
For the first time, US intelligence says publicly that Iran may have imported illegally some weapons-usable fissile material, though not enough for a bomb.
It says with "moderate-to-high" confidence that Tehran "at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons". It assesses with "high confidence" that the freeze on the military weapons programme that began in autumn 2003 lasted for several years. Its assessment that the programme had not restarted by mid-2007 was made with "moderate confidence".
Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: "This is a startling assessment, one that the US has never suggested before. What the US is saying is that they stopped. This explains why Washington has been willing to take a slow diplomatic route in the [UN] Security Council."
*Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran's president, yesterday told Gulf Arab leaders he sought greater economic and security ties, writes Andrew England in Doha.
Addressing the opening of the Gulf Co-operation Council summit in Doha, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad proposed a regional security pact, joint investments in gas and oil projects, free trade and sharing of Iran's knowledge in "energy and technology".
