By Afsan Chowdhury
The Bali conference which brought leaders of the entire world in one gathering was desperately in search of unanimity amongst the leaders about how to proceed to the next stage. This next stage was about agreeing to a roadmap of this journey.
The Kyoto Protocol is to end by 2012 and a new set of goals, objectives, principles and targets needs to be put in place before the final meet to hammer out a deal occurs at Copenhagen in 2009. Although there was stiff resistance from the United States, supported by Canada and Japan, the world opinion finally made it through as at the final stage the US rather surprisingly agreed to what were already quite watered down proposals. Of these, the key was the demand that the developed countries agree to a mandatory cut of 25-40% of their carbon emissions from the 1990 level by the year 2020. Three countries refused this and instead demanded that a number of developed countries set their targets who are also high emitters.
The US had two countries in mind, China and India. That both are high emitters is a fact but this is largely because of their population and per capita carbon consumption in these two countries are several times lower. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) which covers the various treaties including the Kyoto Protocol specifically states that developing countries are not held to binding obligations. This is known to all, but even then the US and its allies pressed on this issue. It's possible that apart from not taking responsibility for new emission standards, the US was also concerned about the growing trade capacities of the two who are penetrating into the US market.
One of the gains made at Bali was renewed agreement that developed countries would provide resources, money and technology to the developing world to adapt to the negative impact of climate change. This has clearly brought out the concept of differentiated impact which is now part of the climate change challenge and mitigation language. Climate change will affect different countries in different ways and the UNFCC is clear that the price for cleaning up is also going to be different. It means for those who are poor, low emitters or with a low carbon footprint and about to be affected badly by various aspects of climate change the cost must be paid by the high emitting rich countries.
Clearly, this difference is accepted by all but experts are now worried that certain forces unleashed by the monster of climate change will not be bound by any agreement. One issue that has everyone scared is the high possibility of conflict and crisis, wars and terrorism, all directly and indirectly caused by the fingers of climate change.
Climate refugees and conflict
The IPCC (Inter-Government Panel on Climate Change), which is responsible for the research that has ended debate on whether human activity was responsible for climate change, issued a stark warning that global climate change could suddenly accelerate and become irreversible. The warning from the scientists doesn't mention the political threats that are rapidly emerging and becoming irreversible too but the connection between climate change and conflict was made very clearly at the Bali conference as well. Climate change induced political crisis may already have reached the threshold with the eye of the storm in South Asia.
The damage caused by the latest storm in Bangladesh, a category 4 SIDR, will add on to the misery of the July-August floods affecting already fragile livelihoods. With more people impoverished, it will trigger environmental refugees, internally and externally. As climate change gallops, millions may trek to wherever they think will be safe. The natural choice of Bangladeshi millions will almost certainly be India, creating the platform for instability and possible conflicts in the entire region.
Dr. Rajendra Pachauri of the Nobel prize winning IPCC says, 'Bangladesh is going to be one of the worst-hit regions and that will certainly be a matter of concern. It may generate refugees at a scale not seen before. Obviously many will move towards India."
Bangladesh's capital Dhaka is already collapsing under the weight of environmental refugees. The city streets moonlight as bedroom and homes to hundreds of thousands every night. Most have run away from the coastal areas or from eroded river banks that take homes and livelihood regularly every year. What may happen when refugee numbers reach millions as the country drowns due to sea level rise of one-third of total land mass is not difficult to guess.
That Bangladesh will generate refugees and in millions is now an accepted fact but climate change has largely been seen as a scientific issue and social scientists have not paid enough attention. In the West, in the military security world, this has however begun to rear its head though the thinking is narrow and is more about protecting the West rather than initiating a global coping policy.
US military estimates
Senior retired military officials have participated in preparing a prognosis where security threats to the US and possible military action has been spelt out as reported in the Environment News Service dated April 16, 2007. There is great US fear of inter-national war leading to nuclear conflict, but not enough concern that this may lead to direct threats to the US as it becomes the 'global villain' in the war of the climates.
Global climate change presents a serious national security threat that could affect Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations, and heighten global tensions, finds a study released recently by a blue-ribbon panel of 11 of the most senior retired U.S. admirals and generals as stated by the panel known as the Military Advisory Board.
"We will pay for this one way or another," said retired U.S. Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and we'll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a human toll."
"The U.S. should commit to a stronger national and international role to help stabilize climate changes at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security and stability," the Military Advisory Board recommends. The study, "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change," says that climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in already fragile regions of the world, creating the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism.
The CNA Corporation, a nonprofit research and analysis organization, brought together the 11 retired four-star and three-star admirals and generals as a Military Advisory Board to provide advice, expertise and perspective on the impact of climate change on national security. CNA writers and researchers compiled the report under the board's direction and review.
Meanwhile closer at home the threat is taking its early shapes. India is already putting fences on its border with Bangladesh, one of the longest borders between any two countries, to stop Bangladeshis from crossing. It claims millions of Bangladeshis have crossed over to India after 1972. That figure may look small if one-third of Bangladesh drowns and millions try to enter India, seeking safety.
Two dangerous components of possible conflicts arouse great fear. One, the spark of communalism-related conflict which both countries are subjected to and two, terrorism-related opportunities inherent in a region where it appears already firmly planted.
Should India aggressively stop fleeing refugees from entering, repercussions are obvious. Such measures may lead to communal interpretation of these actions. India may quickly be painted as stopping Muslims from reaching safety. On the other hand, stopping Hindu refugees from Bangladesh will be cause problem within India. So whatever be the scenario, communalism may rise to conflict level in both countries and there are many forces in both countries ready to take advantage.
Extremist rises
Such decisions will be welcomed by the already active extremist groups. In the last few years Indians have pointed fingers to Bangladeshi groups like HUJI ( Harkatul-Jihad Islami) and other groups as key players in Indian blasts. Many of HUJI leaders including its leaders Mufti Hannan are in Bangladeshi jails awaiting trial for killing or attempting to kill ordinary people, politicians and intellectuals including Bangladesh's former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. There are other groups who are all virulently anti-Indian and regularly in conflict with Bangladeshi law enforcement agencies. Many are reportedly moving freely across borders. Now they have almost no public support but in future as the situation grinds down, support to such violent groups may increase. Anti-Muslim groups in India will also find easy excuses to be violent, using either the pouring refugees as an issue or reacting to the rising tensions caused by their departure.
Dr. Ajay Sahni, of the Delhi based Institute of Conflict Management, says that terrorism is the most efficient form of violence for those who have low resources. He thinks that the low understanding of conflict and its management has caused a lot of havoc in South Asia. Climate change will be another factor, though for the moment it is a speculative area.
The 'solution' to climate change caused misery of the poor world offered by the rich countries is adaptation, an idea which is interpreted as unilateral and deeply unfair. Most Bangladeshis who know of the crisis say that they have no intention of adapting to the crisis after being damaged. And that means conflict and confrontation is brewing in many minds. Climate change has become a global security problem that is hugely underestimated.
While scientists spell out what climate change can happen, political change is already happening. Unless climate change and political threats are strategically linked, there may not be enough time left to cut carbon emissions to pull back and save the world.
The fallout of global warming
Global warming could lead to internal conflict, regional unrest and war, with North Africa, the Sahel and South Asia among the hotspots, a report issued at the recently held global climate change forum in Bali, Indonesia.
The warning by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) came just hours ahead of ceremonies in Oslo to award the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to US climate campaigner Al Gore and the UN's top scientific panel on the greenhouse-gas problem.
UNEP called for a two-pronged approach, tackling the carbon emissions that stoke global warming and helping vulnerable countries shore up defences against its impacts.
"If global warming is not confined, fragile, vulnerable states which have already now fairly bad governance might implode under the pressure of global warming and then send shock waves to other countries so that you will have spillover effects," said one of the authors, Hans Schnellhuber, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research near Berlin, Germany.
If warming rose by five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) "we might have something like a global civil war," said Schnellhuber.
According to the Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2100 global average surface temperatures could rise by between 1.1 C and 6.4 C (1.98 and 11.52 F) compared to 1980-99 levels.
The UNEP document, issued on the sidelines of the December 3-14 meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is the starkest warning yet by a United Nations agency on the security risks that flow from climate change.
These perceived risks -- also shared by a growing number of political and military think-tanks -- stem from competition over dwindling water resources as well as tensions arising from the aftermath of major storms, failed harvests or other cataclysms.
The report, "Climate Change as a Security Risk," placed the spotlight on a number of "regional hotspots," including:
NORTH AFRICA: Worsening water shortages, dwindling crop yields, galloping population growth and "poor political problem-solving capabilities" will intensify the potential for political crisis and migratory pressure. The Nile delta will be at risk from rising sea levels and salinisation of farmland.
SAHEL: Climate change will exacerbate the the problems of a region characterised by weak states, civil wars and refugee flows.
SOUTH ASIA: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh face "especially severe" risks from climate change, led by glacial retreat in the Himalayas that will threaten the water supply for millions of people. Sea-level rise and cyclones will threaten the coastline of the Bay of Bengal and changes to monsoon rains will hit agriculture.
"These dynamics will increase the social crisis potential in a region which is already characterised by cross-border conflicts (India/Pakistan), unstable governments (Bangladesh/Pakistan) and Islamism," UNEP said.
CHINA: Higher temperatures will worsen heatwaves and drought, driving desertification and water scarcity in some parts of the country, which is already struggling with chronic environmental problems. On China's thriving, highly populated eastern coast, the peril will come from sea-level rise and tropical cyclones.
"The government's steering capacities could be overwhelmed by the rapid pace of modernisation, environmental and social crisis and the impacts of climate change," says the report.
The assessment is the latest, but most emphatic, in a series of analyses of the link between climate change and instability.
The Stern Review, a 2006 assessment on the economics of climate change authored by British economist Sir Nicholas Stern, quoted estimates of as many as 150-200 million "permanently displaced" environmental refugees by mid-century.
According to a US State Department report in June, more than a billion people in Asia could face reduced water availability by mid-century.
In September, Britain's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) predicted fears about stability are bound to rise to the top of the agenda.
"The security dimension will come increasingly to the forefront as countries begin to see falls in available resources and economic vitality, increased stress on their armed forces, greater instability in regions of strategic import, increases in ethnic rivalries, and a widening gap between rich and poor," it said.
