A NATO member and a candidate for accession to the European Union, Turkey must take care to adopt its policies toward Iran accordingly, Celalifer said. Despite the NIE's observations, European countries still urge Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment that could lead to it acquiring nuclear weapons, and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates depicted Iran as the troublemaker of the Middle East over the weekend. “However, Turkey has to live with Iran. Extensive sanctions on Tehran will ultimately damage Turkey's interests. In short, Ankara needs to play the rope-walker,” said Celalifer.
As the American National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which underlined Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons program four years ago dealt a serious blow to U.S. President George Bush's plans for Tehran, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is preparing to visit Turkey in the coming weeks or months.
Experts believe that Ahmadinejad seeks to change his country's image in the international arena with the Ankara visit.
Arzu Celalifer, expert on Iran at the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK) estimated that the visit will be concentrated around three themes; namely the energy deal with Iran, cooperation against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its Iranian extension, Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), and assessing an important neighbor's attitudes toward Iran following the NIE's publication.
“An energy deal was due to be finalized toward the end of the year and we can expect progress on that. But since for now we do not know whether the Iranian energy minister is coming, the real deal could rather be for the sake of image,” Celalifer said.
Arif Keskin, expert on Iranian politics at the Eurasian Strategic Research Center (ASAM) said Iran has far more to gain from Ahmadinejad's visit than Turkey. “Iran considers relations with Turkey an important factor in its relations with the West, which are strained over its nuclear program,” he said. At first glance Iran seems to be doing well with its western neighbor. They cooperate against PKK terrorists that troubled Turkey in recent months with deadly attacks, at a time when the United States, in order to evade antagonizing northern Iraqi Kurds, was reluctant to support a Turkish military operation in the region. Besides, Iran saw gas deals with Turkey, who wants to invest in three South Pars gas fields in Iran, as a means to further breach the U.S. embargo on its energy sector. A Turkish-Iranian project that was agreed upon in mid-July alienated the U.S. at the time.
However a closer look reveals that Tehran's effort to develop relations with Turkey to improve its image has its limits. Although they cooperated in striking at PKK bases, their views on regional matters such as the Israel-Palestine issue are in stark contrast. “Turkey actively supported the Annapolis initiative and encouraged other countries to participate, while Iran sought to undermine it. Besides, Iran's military partnership with Armenia antagonizes the Turkish military that is never comfortable in forging closer relations with the military of an Islamic regime,” said Keskin.
A NATO member and a candidate for accession to the European Union, Turkey must take care to adopt its policies toward Iran accordingly, Celalifer said. Despite the NIE's observations, European countries still urge Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment that could lead to it acquiring nuclear weapons, and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates depicted Iran as the troublemaker of the Middle East over the weekend. “However, Turkey has to live with Iran. Extensive sanctions on Tehran will ultimately damage Turkey's interests. In short, Ankara needs to play the rope-walker,” said Celalifer.
