April 1st - - Sunday Telegraph - China is accused of fuelling Pacific arms race

Jason Alderwick, a maritime defence analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said: "Submarines are potent platforms and will be a key factor in any dispute over Taiwan or the Moluccas."

01 April 2007: Sunday Telegraph

By Tim Shipman and Chad Bouchard in Jakarta, Sunday Telegraph

A dramatic increase in the number of submarines being built in southeast Asia has sparked claims that a new arms race is under way beneath the waves in the Western Pacific.

Dozens of hunter-killers, armed with missiles and intelligence-gathering equipment, are being built, fanning fears of potential conflict in a volatile corner of the world and threatening to alter the global balance of military power.

The Indonesian government has announced that it wants to build 12 submarines by 2024 to patrol the strategically vital waters around its 17,000 islands. Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Bangladesh and -Pakistan are all buying -submarines "off the shelf".

China and India - the two emergent superpowers of the Asia-Pacific region - are now planning a new generation of nuclear-powered boats that, in China's case, could fire nuclear missiles capable of hitting the US mainland.

A report published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think-tank warns: "There is an element of an arms race at work here."

Andrew Davies, the author of The Enemy Below, said: "Submarines will be able to seriously threaten the operation of surface fleets and commercial trade."

His report predicts that the growing number of submarine operations could lead to a "serious international incident" and that the "potential for miscalculation is significant, leading to accidents or escalation of response".

The major peril in these waters has been, until recently, the prevalence of modern-day paramilitary "pirates", who blight the trade routes through the Malacca Straits between Sumatra and Malaysia.

Now they are becoming the hunting ground for a new generation of submarine, capable of sinking ships, attacking ports and oil facilities, laying mines and landing covert raiding parties.

The potential for conflict became a reality last October. The USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier, at 82,000 tons, is the embodiment of US naval superiority in the Pacific, which has gone unchallenged since the Battle of Midway in 1942.

Supported by an attack submarine and anti-submarine helicopters, it was conducting routine exercises around the island of Okinawa when its crew was startled - and embarrassed - by the sudden appearance of a Chinese Song-class submarine.

The boat, apparently practising anti-carrier warfare, had gone undetected until it surfaced five miles away - putting the American vessel within range of its Russian-made, wake-homing torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles.

US commanders admitted they had been caught off guard because Chinese boats are rarely found in the "blue water" so far from their own coastline.

Adml William Fallon, then the head of US Pacific Command, who has been promoted to take charge of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, warned that the incident "could have escalated into something that was very unforeseen".

Indonesia is adding submarines to its fleet faster than any other country of comparable size. Four Russian Kilo class diesel-powered boats have been ordered from the Russian Far East, at a cost of $200million (£107 million) each. A $750million deal last month with South Korea will supply another two submarines

By 2016, Singapore plans to have six submarines. Earlier this month, a French Scorpene submarine ordered by Malaysia reached its final stage of construction, the first of two destined for the Royal Malaysian Navy. Vietnam wants two or three Kilo-class boats.

Defence advisers in Australia, Britain's closest ally in the region, are voicing concern that the country's regional naval superiority is under attack.

British military officials, who conduct submarine exercises alongside Australia in the South Pacific, fear that nuclear warheads could be mounted on missiles fired by conventional submarines acquired by the other nations, creating a nuclear standoff in the region.

A British military official said: "If you are looking for a nuclear deterrent, it makes sense to acquire a submarine fleet. They are the best solution for nuclear power projection because they are difficult to detect and destroy."

Indonesia's military spokesman, Rear Adml M Sunarto Sjoekronoputro, told The Sunday Telegraph that increasing naval power was critical for a country of 17,000 islands. "To secure our borders, two outdated submarines are not enough," he said. "We will buy new submarines step by step, as the economy allows."

The unspoken reason, spelled out in the Australian report, for the growth in submarine power is China, with which Indonesia has had uneasy relations for 40 years.

Since 1996, when the United States sent two carrier battle groups to Taiwan to deter -Chinese aggression, China has invested in weapons to boost its naval power. President Hu Jintao told Communist Party delegates last year he wants a navy prepared "at any time" for military action.

The US Office of Naval Intelligence says China is intent on building five strategic nuclear-missile boats, equipped with 5,000-mile range JL-2 missiles, which will give it an arsenal of 60 strategic nuclear missiles at sea, each with multiple warheads.

The first will go to sea next year, and the first two of a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines will enter service this year. Chinese defence spending will increase 17 per cent this year to £23 billion - the 19th year of double-digit growth.

Last November China shifted its defensive posture, from the Mao doctrine, which envisaged destroying enemies within the borders of China, to one that would protect the homeland offshore.

The US Department of Defence's recent Military Power Report on China concluded that the country was working on a combat air wing for a future aircraft carrier, capable of projecting power far into the Pacific.

Robert Karniol, the Asia-Pacific bureau chief of the magazine Jane's Defence Weekly, said: "There are deep suspicions around the region fed by China's lack of transparency.

If you build up offshore capability your intention may be defensive but the equipment can be used for offensive action. As military capabilities grow more sophisticated offshore, the possibility of misunderstandings and small incidents building into something serious is heightened."

Vice-President Dick Cheney signalled the US response in February when he visited Guam, the 30-mile long Pacific island dubbed America's "unsinkable aircraft carrier".

He hailed the arrival of two Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarines, with a third due later this year. Guam's Apra Harbour is under refurbishment to accommodate Trident nuclear subs.

But Chinese submarines may be shifting the balance of power. Mr Karniol said: "The Chinese have made clear they retain a military option on Taiwan. The consensus is that the Americans would not be able to prevent an invasion. They would be able to move and defeat it but they wouldn't be able to stop it happening."