By William Choong, For The Straits Times
CANBERRA - COUNTRIES in the Asia-Pacific are racing to acquire the latest submarines, sparking concern about an arms race under the waters of the Pacific.
Dozens of new machines are being sought by nations aiming to showcase their naval capabilities and protect their sea lanes.
The newer versions come armed with missiles and intelligence-gathering equipment.
In the race, China and India are leading the pack, buoyed by strong economic growth within their countries.
American allies Japan and Australia, which already boast the region's most technologically sophisticated submarine fleets, are looking to upgrade their capabilities as well.
In South-east Asia, Singapore, which has one of the most advanced submarines in the region, is looking to add to its fleet.
Indonesia will be doing much the same and Malaysia is aiming to become a submarine power by the end of the decade.
'There is an element of an arms race at work here,' warns a report issued by the defence think-tank Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
'For example, Malaysia's acquisition of submarines is likely to be strongly linked to Singapore's rapidly growing capability,' said Mr Andrew Davies, an analyst at ASPI, in the report released in February.
'Similarly, South Korea and Japan will be eyeing China's burgeoning naval capability with some concern,' he said in the report titled The Enemy Below.
Traditionally, submarine capabilities in the Pacific have been the purview of established powers such as the United States, Russia, Japan and Australia.
But they are now highly sought by Asian navies - even by lesser-developed countries such as Bangladesh - for their array of capabilities. Under the cover of stealth, they can fire torpedoes and missiles, conduct surveillance and intelligence operations and land covert parties. A single submarine can cost billions of dollars.
This is the second time in recent years that the region is witnessing a race for submarines, with the first taking place in the mid-1990s, just before the Asian financial crisis.
This time, some countries are seeking to add nuclear submarines to their line-up while others are seeking conventional capabilities only.
China plans to deploy five new strategic nuclear-missile boats and several advanced nuclear-powered attack submarines soon.
These would add to its existing fleet. According to the US Department of Defence, China has 50 diesel submarines and five nuclear submarines.
Not far behind is India, which is seeking to have up to three nuclear submarines by 2016. They will be armed with nuclear-capable cruise missiles built on Russian designs. It is also seeking to acquire up to six French Scorpene submarines, to add to its existing arsenal of 16 conventional submarines which include 10 modern Russian Kilo submarines.
Closer home, Indonesia is seeking to acquire 12 submarines by 2024. These would include four Russian Kilo-class attack submarines to be added to its two ageing German Type 209 boats.
By the end of this decade, Malaysia would also become a submarine power with the acquisition of two new French Scorpene submarines.
This, according to the ASPI report, is probably 'a response' to Singapore's growing submarine capability.
The report said Singapore was 'well on its way to acquiring a very sophisticated submarine capability'.
As is typical with Singapore's acquisition plans, it has bought 'very capable' Swedish Sjoormen-class submarines. Singapore's fleet will expand from the current four to six by 2010.
The logic behind the purchases is straightforward.
Amid rapid militarisation, submarines are assets employed for both brute force and coercion.
During the Cold War, nuclear-armed submarines were 'second-strike' assets in that they could evade massive nuclear strikes aimed at their homelands and yet launch their own counter-attacks.
Just one conventional submarine could cause a major setback for enemy naval forces.
During the 1982 Falklands War, an Argentinian submarine struck the British aircraft carrier HMS Invincible. Although the Invincible survived the attack, the event could have changed the outcome of the war.
Not all analysts, however, are convinced of the need for Asian countries to acquire submarines.
Most South-east Asian countries are pursuing naval modernisation without proper infrastructure and logistics support, said the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) in a report last year.
'While naval procurement programmes may continue apace, in general, South-east Asian navies will be fairly slow to develop real new capabilities,' said Mr Tim Huxley, an IISS director and author of Defending The Lion City: The Armed Forces Of Singapore.
Singapore remains the exception because, backed by vast financial resources and investments in military research, it now boasts one of the most advanced navies in the region, the IISS said.
'That investment has certainly benefited Singapore's navy,' said Dr Huxley.
