Kim Jong-il is likely to launch more missiles or conduct a nuclear test if North Korea comes under continued pressure from the US or China, analysts say, amid increasing reports that the regime is preparing for another provocative stunt.
Although Pyongyang escaped tangible punishment after its defiant missile launches in July, it has not succeeded in forcing Washington to give in to any of its demands, chief among them the insistence that crippling financial sanctions be dropped.
Reports that Pyongyang might be preparing for a nuclear test have been followed this week by speculation that further missile tests could be coming. South Korean intelligence authorities reported suspicious vehicle movements in Kitaeryong, where six short-range missiles were launched.
“I don’t doubt for a minute that North Korea would be planning further missile tests, especially of the Taepodong-2, after diagnosing what went wrong in July,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former senior State Department official, referring to the long-range missile that failed 40 seconds after launch. “But that diagnosis is likely to take some time so I don’t think a test will be immediate,” he said.
Christopher Hill, the chief US negotiator in the six-party talks who is now in north-east Asia trying to start the diplomatic process, told reporters there was no solid information that North Korea was preparing for a missile launch or nuclear test. But given that Mr Kim conducted the last test on Independence Day, the rumours are gaining traction because George W.Bush and Roh Moo-hyun, his South Korean counterpart, will meet in Washington next week.
A defining moment could, however, occur this week if Mr Kim visits Beijing. A leading South Korean newspaper reported yesterday that Mr Kim’s special train had arrived in Shinuiju, on the Chinese border, and was preparing to head to Beijing.
Song Young-sun, a defence expert and opposition lawmaker in Seoul, said the future actions of Mr Kim’s regime would be heavily influenced by his discussions with China.
“If China insists that North Korea must stop counterfeiting and must return to the six-party talks without receiving any kind of reward, it’s very likely that North Korea will explode a nuclear weapon or conduct another missile test,” she said.
“But if Hu [Jintao] promises to try to persuade the US to lift sanctions, and if he apologises for supporting the UN resolution, then the chances of any kind of test are slim,” she said.
Beijing, Pyongyang’s chief benefactor, took a surprisingly tough line in July by supporting the multilateral resolution condemning the tests.
However, the chances of the former occurring were much higher than the latter, Ms Song said. “There is a very high probability of a missile or nuclear test before the end of next month,” she said.
Bruce Klingner, of the Eurasia Group consultancy, said sanctions that severely restricted North Korean economic activity or a perceived need to try to elicit benefits not gained from the missile tests could be the catalyst.
Most analysts still think Pyongyang would be unlikely to go ahead with a nuclear test simply because that is its trump card. But because threats have served North Korea so well, many analysts did not think the regime would actually go through with the missile tests in July, so their predictions now are carefully couched.
