The US should seek to enlist Gulf Arab states in an effort to contain Iran if it fails to suspend its nuclear programme, the head of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said on Tuesday.
John Chipman, director- general of the London-based think-tank, said the US should ascertain the interest of members of the Gulf Co-operation Council in a stronger security relationship with the US and, if needed, a more open policy of containing Iran.
Closer ties between the US and Gulf Arab governments could lead Iran to conclude that its failure to suspend uranium enrichment was only succeeding in encouraging a greater US military presence in the region, Mr Chipman said at the launch of the group’s annual Strategic Survey.
He noted that the US had not ruled out military options in dealing with Iran, a decision that could in theory influence Iranian calculations. “Perhaps more persuasively, brandishing the containment option could change the cost-benefit analysis in Tehran. And if diplomacy were to fail, the US will have at least prepared the regional ground for deterring Iran or taking further action of another kind.” The US would need more than tacit support among Gulf countries for a containment policy. “It needs allies to be public in their support for that policy,” he said.
US officials say they have already begun talks with governments in the region about a possible Gulf security initiative with the aim of improving defence co-operation with the US.
One US official, speaking this summer, said it was clear regional governments shared concerns with the US about “a nuclear Iran, an expansionist Iran . . . an Iran supporting terrorism” or one making trouble in Iraq. “It’s not so much our threat assessment, its our friends’ in the region,” he said.
He said the talks would seek to cover defence co-operation, energy security, counter-terrorism and internal security.
This would be combined with international diplomatic efforts to end Iran’s bid to produce nuclear materials and efforts to “promote civil society in Iran”, for which a $75m (€59m, £40m) budget had been set aside.
Mr Chipman said the US was likely to seek international economic sanctions in a graduated way, starting with limited measures to halt the sale of nuclear equipment, blocking travel by Iranian officials and seizing their foreign assets.
