By Thomas Omestad
They didn't say "Yes," but they didn't exactly say "No" either. The long-awaited response last week by Iranian leaders to an incentive-laced package intended to lure the Islamic Republic away from making nuclear fuel left the countries offering it frustrated once again-and searching for a way to move forward together in the face of Iran's deft maneuvering.
The complicated 21-page reply had diplomats from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China all puzzling over their translated texts, sifting through what one called an occasionally contradictory set of comments and queries. Iran pitched its response as comprehensive, as a gateway to immediate, "serious" talks. But it was clear that Tehran had chosen to reject the core demand of the six powers, rendered legally binding by a United Nations Security Council resolution: to halt enrichment of uranium by a deadline of August 31. "Iran wants to start negotiating on the carrots, not the sticks," says a senior U.S. official.
Sanctions delay. That approach is already sparking moves by the Bush administration and some European governments to win Security Council approval for sanctions. "We're embarking on the long road" of getting sanctions, says the U.S. official. Those could include banning the sale to Iran of nuclear gear and dual-use technology, a visa ban on travel by Iranian officials, and a freeze on some financial accounts.
But gaining U.N. approval will likely prove trying, even though U.S. officials have said that Russia and China already agree in principle to support some sanctions if Iran carries on uranium enrichment past the end of August. The Russian and Chinese acceptance followed concessions by President Bush, including a willingness to negotiate directly with Iran over the nuclear standoff and to support such enticements as the provision of proliferation-resistant light-water nuclear reactors, trade, the lifting of U.S. barriers to airliner sales, and security talks. All are to be conditioned on diverting Iran from uranium enrichment and the reprocessing of plutonium-paths either to nuclear bombs or, as Tehran steadfastly claims, to nuclear energy.
While the United States, Britain, France, and Germany described Iran's reply as falling short of the mark, Russia and China pleaded for patience and for exploring "nuance" in the Iranian missive. Russia's defense minister suggested that "the question is not so serious at the moment" to consider sanctions. Both nations maintain sizable trade and energy deals with Iran and fear another U.S.-led war in the Mideast. And with hints that Iran might yet consider a suspension of enrichment during talks-but not as a precondition to them-Russia and China may be inclined to dwell on any alternatives to immediate sanctions. "It's a cardinal principle of Iranian diplomacy that you try to divide those against you," says a senior European official.
Even so, Washington and its European allies strained to show that they were treating the Iranian counteroffer seriously, not dismissing it out of hand. With antiwestern sentiments boiling in the Islamic world over Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the U.S. battles in Iraq, diplomats know that deeper tensions with Iran will agitate the region further. The ability of Hezbollah, backed by Iranian money and weapons, to withstand weeks of Israeli assault seems to have emboldened Iran, already cushioned by high oil prices. Hezbollah, said Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has "hoisted the banner of victory." Adds Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, "Iran is the biggest winner of this war."
Stirring the pot. Iran seems to be acting accordingly. In the Pentagon's most direct allegation to date, Brig. Gen. Michael Barbero said last week, "it's irrefutable that Iran is responsible for training, funding, and equipping" Shiite insurgent groups in Iraq. In recent days, Iran has also test-fired missiles and barred international inspectors from one of its main nuclear sites, at Natanz. Iranian hard-liners are arguing that defiance on the nuclear issue is forcing the West to sweeten its offers. In Tehran, some officials have suggested that U.N. penalties would prompt an effort to conceal nuclear work that, until now, has been open to inspections. And the government has been preparing for sanctions, even drafting an alternative budget that would cut spending on subsidies. "The general view is, 'We can survive. We can take it,'" says Vakil, who recently conducted research in Iran.
That confidence is fueled by the likelihood that the Security Council is unwilling to go where sanctions would really bite: Iran's oil and natural gas exports. Oil prices above $70 per barrel and scant excess production capacity mean that an embargo on purchasing Iranian oil is not being seriously entertained. On the contrary, some Iranian officials have suggested selectively withholding oil from global markets to shock western countries into easing up, even though it would deprive Iran of funds.
While the Iranians brace for possible penalties, they may also be experiencing setbacks in uranium enrichment. Iran had said that it would have a second and third "cascade" of 164 linked, fast-spinning centrifuges running by midsummer. "The absence of any announcement or news about the installation and operation of those centrifuges suggests that they have run into technical problems," says Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. diplomat now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
There is little reason to doubt that Iran can, with time, overcome such problems and produce nuclear fuel. Iran's decision, the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated last week, is to "continue its path powerfully."
Set against that kind of determination, tempering Iran's nuclear drive will be a long and dodgy quest. "Success is far from guaranteed, but of all the options available to us, the diplomatic route is the most likely to succeed," reasons a senior European diplomat. The question is how long that will be the case.
