VIENNA, Oct 3, 2006 (AFP) - A nuclear test by North Korea would be a blow to fighting the spread of atomic weapons but diplomats and analysts told AFP they did not expect it to trigger a nuclear arms race at this point in Asia.
"There will be no domino effect. The US security guarantee is the best bet for the region," said Francois Heisbourg, a Paris-based non-proliferation analyst, referring to US alliances with non-nuclear-weapons states South Korea and Japan.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a researcher at the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank in London, said: "A North Korean test would be a very visible confirmation that they have nuclear weapons but everybody already knows and assumes they have the weapons."
"This is just another step on a road that's been traveled for quite a long time," a Western diplomat said.
An Asian diplomat said a North Korean test would be "for demonstration purposes" that would be more a setback to six-nation talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program than anything else.
North Korea has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons but has continually upped the stakes with provocative statements, and recently with missile tests.
Analysts have warned about Japan worrying that the military balance is turning against it and developing nuclear weapons.
But Fitzpatrick said that at this stage, reactions to a nuclear test could be China, for instance, "cutting back in the life support" it gives to impoverished North Korea, such as oil sales.
North Korea said Tuesday that it would carry out a nuclear test because of threats and sanctions from the United States, which it said was trying to topple its communist regime.
No date or time was given for the test but the announcement drew immediate and strongly-worded condemnation from Japan and calls for restraint from Russia.
In Washington, the White House warned North Korea against carrying out a "reckless" and "provocative" nuclear test but recommitted itself to six-country talks aimed at ending the atomic crisis.
"We stand firmly with our allies in the region and reaffirm our commitment to their security," national security spokesman Frederick Jones said.
Heisbourg said one main effect of a North Korean test would be to encourage Iran in its standoff with the international community over sensitive nuclear activities.
"After all, if Iran sees that North Korea has not been attacked by the Americans, Iran could conclude that getting a nuclear weapons gives immunity," Heisbourg said.
North Korea in December 2002 kicked out inspectors from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and then in January 2003 withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Fitzpatrick said that while a North Korean nuclear test would be "a blow to everyone who has been trying to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons... the IAEA is already shut out and unable to enforce any of its safeguards agreements in North Korea."
IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei had in September stressed "the importance and urgency of finding a negotiated solution" to the crisis over North Korea's nuclear program.
But he also admitted to an IAEA general conference in Vienna that "since the end of December 2002... the agency has been unable to draw any conclusions regarding the DPRK's (North Korea's) nuclear activities."
ElBaradei told Der Spiegel magazine in February 2005 that although he could not say "with absolute certainty that Pyongyang already has a usable nuclear weapon. They certainly have the know-how and enough plutonium for at least six to eight bombs."
