TOKYO - A successful nuclear test by North Korea would decisively shift Asia’s diplomatic and military alignment, hardening China and South Korea’s approach toward their reclusive neighbor, strengthening Japan’s security stance and cementing the U.S. presence in the region.
Such a test, which North Korea claimed on Monday, represented Pyongyang’s first demonstration of a nuclear weapon, had a powerful psychological effect in a region that is still emerging from the divisions of World War II and the Cold War.
The suspected blast also raised fears of a wider arms race in Asia. Should non-atomic Japan, for instance, increase defense spending or even consider developing its own nuclear deterrent, that could prompt Seoul - which nurses suspicions about Japanese intentions - and others like Taiwan to follow suit.
“The test inevitably alters the balance of power,” Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, wrote in response to e-mailed questions. “Now, North Korea has demonstrated it has the ultimate weapon.”
The diplomatic effects of the possible test were clear in the hours after Pyongyang announced a successful test and meteorological agencies in the region registered a moderate earthquake, a possible sign of an underground blast.
For China and South Korea, the test - which followed calls by both Seoul and Beijing for Pyongyang to stand down - was expected to make it harder for the two to pursue their policies of working with the regime.
In Seoul, a U.S. ally divided from the North by the Cold War’s last frontier, the shock was acute: A war provoked by Pyongyang’s reckless nuclear brinksmanship would devastate South Korea.
“Under this situation, it’s difficult for South Korea to maintain engagement policy,” South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said Monday.
China, too, while not considering itself a target of the North’s weapons, was expected to come under pressure to distance itself from the regime, a longtime ally whom it supplies with vital energy shipments and diplomatic backing.
Beijing had consistently rebuffed U.S. and Japanese calls to crack down on Pyongyang, but - burned by Pyongyang’s refusal to heed its warnings - reacted harshly Monday to the North’s “flagrantly conducted” nuclear test.
The prospect of a nuclear armed North Korea deeply rattled Japan, Pyongyang’s oft-stated enemy. Japan is Korea’s former colonial ruler and top U.S. ally in the region, making it the regime’s first target in the region.
The development was certain to allow Japan’s new prime minister, nationalist Shinzo Abe, to accelerate his plans of bolstering security cooperation with the United States, building a missile defense shield with Washington, and revising the pacifist constitution.
“The development and possession of nuclear weapons by North Korea will in a major way transform the security environment in North Asia,” Abe said after meeting with Roh in Seoul. “We will be entering a new, dangerous nuclear age.”
A North Korea armed with atomic weapons would also be a major motivation for the minority in Japan who feel Tokyo should develop its own nuclear deterrent. Analysts, however, consider that an unlikely development for now as long as Japan - the only nation to have suffered a nuclear attack - is firmly under the U.S. defense umbrella.
For the biggest military player in East Asia - the United States - the possibility of North Korea becoming a confirmed nuclear power made it as certain as ever that American forces would not leave the region anytime soon. The U.S. has some 50,000 troops in Japan and 30,000 in South Korea.
Any substantial response in the region, however, was tempered by the uncertainties surrounding North Korea’s capabilities, including the extent of Pyongyang’s nuclear technology, if it was capable of building a usable bomb or whether it could develop a warhead small enough to put on a missile.
It was also not certain whether more tests would be needed before the North had a workable bomb.
“From what we know now, it’s one test,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo. “That means that they’re not at the weaponizing stage yet - this is just to show, ‘we’re able to do this.”’
The shock value was also mitigated by the lack of surprise: many experts had already concluded that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il had the materials and technology to build a bomb, and may have possessed one for some time before Monday’s announcement.
“In some way, I don’t think this is a major event,” said Robert Dujarric, a senior associate at the Fairfax, Va.-based National Institute for Public Policy. “It doesn’t really change the military equation, because we knew he had something.”
