CAIRO, Egypt -- The United States is focusing on the Arab world for help in pressing Sudan to accept U.N. peacekeepers in Darfur to stop the violence and provide humanitarian relief. But Arab countries are more likely to support Sudan's rejection of such a deployment, analysts say.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice came out of a meeting with eight Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Tuesday night and pleaded for the world to persuade Sudan to accept U.N. peacekeepers.
"What is going on in Darfur now cannot be tolerated," she said, citing U.N. reports on worsening conditions in the western Sudan region. "We need to work urgently to have the government of Khartoum accept what is now a U.N. Security Council resolution."
The resolution passed in August would give the world body authority over the African Union peacekeepers in Darfur, enhancing their power to tackle the lawlessness and shortages of food and water.
At least 200,000 people have died and about 2.5 million have been displaced since fighting began in early 2003 when rebels from ethnic African tribes rose against the Arab-led Sudanese government.
But Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir has repeatedly rejected U.N. forces in Darfur, saying they would be neocolonialists violating Sudanese sovereignty. His government has orchestrated mass demonstrations in Khartoum in support of that position.
The top U.N. peacekeeping official, Jean-Marie Guehennoon, on Wednesday criticized the notion that the United Nations could deploy troops to Darfur without a firm political agreement between rebels and the government. He said sending international troops to try to stop the violence would go well beyond what peacekeepers are supposed to do.
Maamoun Fandy of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London said the Arab League is unlikely to push Khartoum on Washington's behalf unless the U.S. changes its policy toward Israel.
"Darfur is horrific, but also what is taking place in Palestine ... is horrific, so unless the menu includes movement on the Palestinian issue, the Arabs will not bite on that Darfur issue," said Fandy.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit spoke alongside Rice Tuesday and told reporters the Palestinian issue was central to the Middle East's problems. He said a large part of Rice's meeting with the six Arab Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt was devoted to Darfur.
Rice stressed the U.N.'s deployment in Darfur was no threat to Sudan's sovereignty.
But Peter Woodward, professor of politics at Reading University in England, said Arab states have real doubts about U.S. respect for their territories after the invasion of Iraq and the Israeli offensive in Lebanon, which Washington was seen as supporting.
"There is a fear that if they surrender a degree of sovereignty in Darfur, the danger is that it becomes an encouragement to others, perhaps in eastern Sudan, to take a similar line of violent resistance," Woodward said.
In Sudan's capital, the editor of the opposition newspaper, the Khartoum Monitor, says the main issue for the current government is retaining power.
"The majority of the Sudanese people know that the government is opposing the U.N. because it is afraid of losing power," said Alfred Taban.
The ruling party in south Sudan, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, and the three main rebel factions in Darfur have all called for a U.N. deployment. SPLM leader, Salva Kiir Mayardit, holds the position of first vice president, and one of the Darfur factions is led by Minni Minnawi, who has made peace with the government and become an assistant to al-Bashir.
Analysts differ on what pressures could be applied to force the government to allow U.N. forces to take over the African Union mission, which is poorly equipped and under staffed for the Darfur crisis.
But they agree that the one major power with clout in Khartoum is China - the major foreign investor in Sudan's oil fields.
So far, Beijing has come out in support of Khartoum's position, saying U.N. peacekeepers can only be deployed with Sudan's consent. But Woodward said this may not be Beijing's final word.
"It has expressed concern and the wish to see things change in Darfur ... and it must be worried that a continuance of violence in Darfur could threaten the stability of the country and China's now-strong economic interests," he said.
However, persuading China to lean on Sudan would be "very difficult," said Fandy. "They are the only player in a sense in Sudanese oil, and they would not want to lose this."
Hani Raslan of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, a Cairo think-tank, said the Arab states were pushing for Sudan and the United States to accept a compromise on Darfur. It would entail more peacekeepers and a new mandate, but they would serve under the AU flag, not the U.N.'s.
