The Chinese defense budget has been growing at a double-digit growth rate in recent years, and the 2006 budget for defense was almost a 15-percent increase over the previous year. China's modernization of the PLA has led to a growing demand for new high-tech weapons systems, purchases of which have almost quadrupled between 1999 and 2005, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Moreover, the U.S. Pentagon has reported that these foreign weapons purchases are funded separately from the official defense budget.
By Robert Henderson
At the conclusion of the recent 9th China-E.U. summit, held Sept. 7-9 in Helsinki, Finland, the European Union and China issued a joint statement stating that the two sides had discussed the 17-year-old E.U. arms embargo on the People's Republic of China and that it would remain in place for at least another year.
In spite of Chinese appeals for the arms embargo to be lifted, the European Union only "recognized the importance of this issue and confirmed its willingness to carry forward work toward lifting the embargo on the basis of the Joint Statement of the 2004 E.U.-China summit." In the earlier 2004 joint statement, Europe reached the same conclusion, namely that the arms embargo should remain in place due to China's weak human rights record and concerns that its military purchases were leading to an arms race that could destabilize regional security. At that time, the E.U. executive commission noted that China had to demonstrate significant progress on human rights before it could be removed from the list of states to whom the European Union does not feel comfortable selling weapons. These states include Myanmar, Zimbabwe and the Sudan.
Europe implemented its prohibition on arms sales to China in June 1989 as a response to the Tiananmen Massacre, when government forces slaughtered thousands of peaceful protesters calling for democracy in China, and the subsequent crackdown on human rights in that country. More recently, there has been international concern over China's rapid military buildup and the passage in March 2005 of its Anti-Secession Law, as well as the adverse impact these measures have had on regional stability.
In recent years, Chinese leaders such as Premier Wen Jiabao have repeatedly described the E.U. weapons embargo as "a relic of the Cold War" and "political discrimination" while suggesting that its abolition would open the way for a more stable political environment between China and Europe. Leading up to Wen's attendance at the summit in Helsinki, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry, Li Ruiyu, reiterated these charges and denounced the arms ban as "discriminatory."
Despite tensions in the E.U.-China political relationship, the level of bilateral trade continues to grow, with China enjoying a sizeable trade surplus. In 2005, Europe surpassed the United States as China's biggest trading partner, and it is now the fourth-largest investor in China and its most important source of technology transfers.
Although the E.U. member-states each maintain a "one-China" policy, there is no consensus among them on removing the arms restrictions. Influential France and Germany continue to favor dropping the arms embargo, while Britain, Sweden and many of the other members favor seeking evidence of significant improvement in China's human rights record, its abstention from unilateral actions that threaten regional stability, and the creation of a strict E.U. code of conduct regarding weapons sales before the embargo is dropped.
Still under discussion, the E.U. code of conduct on arms exports is intended to guarantee transparency in weapons sales and technology transfers and to ensure that any weapons systems sold to China, including dual-use components, are not used against China's own people or in regional conflicts. International observers have pointed out that the current E.U. weapons embargo does not restrict dual-use components and sub-systems, such as communications systems or command-and-control support. There is no clear oversight mechanism for ensuring that the Chinese government internal-security units or the People's Liberation Army units involved in internal repression do not use these European components to enhance their operational capabilities, or to increase the offensive capability of PLA forces.
The Chinese defense budget has been growing at a double-digit growth rate in recent years, and the 2006 budget for defense was almost a 15-percent increase over the previous year. China's modernization of the PLA has led to a growing demand for new high-tech weapons systems, purchases of which have almost quadrupled between 1999 and 2005, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Moreover, the U.S. Pentagon has reported that these foreign weapons purchases are funded separately from the official defense budget.
An estimated 80 percent of China's major weapons systems purchases in recent years have been from Russia, due to the bargain-basement prices and its willingness to transfer military technology, as well as the fact that its weapons systems are a good fit for the PLA's transition toward becoming a high-tech military capable of force projection in regional conflicts. Many of these advanced weapons systems are considered offensive in nature, such as the Kilo-class attack submarine, SU-27 and SU-30 fighter aircraft, Sovremenny-class missile destroyer, and various anti-ship and air-to-air missiles. Some of the Kilo submarines and Sovremenny destroyers were originally built for the Soviet Navy and those of other Warsaw Pact nations. But following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, these contracts were canceled and the weapons were then sold to China at reduced prices. Moreover, Russia has shown a willingness to provide industrial assistance and technology transfers to Chinese defense production companies. Currently, Chinese defense companies are producing, from imported kits, up to 200 SU-27 Flanker fighter aircraft under license.
In March 2005, the Chinese government passed its Anti-Secession Law, which basically provides a legal basis for the PLA to militarily annex Taiwan if the Chinese communist leaders deem that there is social unrest on the island. The United States, European Union, Japan and other members of the international community have denounced this domestic legislation as a unilateral measure that could destabilize the whole East-Asian region.
In its official response to the passage of the law, the European Union declared that it was opposed to the "use of force" and any tension-producing "unilateral actions" in cross-strait relations. While reiterating its "one-China" policy, the European Union said that, as a community, it would once again put aside any consideration of ending the arms embargo until a future date. France dissented, claiming that the Anti-Secession Law was "completely compatible" with the French position and that it would push for the lifting of the "anachronistic and discriminatory" arms embargo against China. The United States and Japan both stated their opposition to the attempt to determine the future of Taiwan by non-peaceful means and to unilaterally change the status quo in cross-strait relations.
The United States currently maintains a strict weapons and weapons-related ban on exports to China. Domestic supporters of the U.S. weapons ban fear that if the European Union ends its arms embargo, this could trigger a Chinese buying spree for more PLA weapons that could be used to threaten Taiwan's maturing democracy and its high-tech economy. It would also upset the strategic balance in Asia and raise the likelihood of a confrontation between the PLA and U.S. military assets in the region, they argue.
Other North American critics of lifting the arms embargo are concerned about Beijing's widespread human rights abuses, and point to alleged acts of physical cruelty against Falun Gong practitioners in China. The Chinese government recently enacted restrictive regulations forcing foreign news agencies that distribute news reports to Chinese media outlets to censor their reports on China's economy and society. Both American and E.U. critics have expressed strong opposition to these new censorship rules as a further example of the human rights abuses that are rampant on the mainland.
The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has consistently lobbied against any resumption of E.U. arms sales to China, despite European assurances that a code of conduct would be imposed. There have been repeated calls in the U.S. Congress for legislation to restrict military exports and technology-sharing with European countries that sell weapons systems to China and to bar the U.S. Defense Department from doing business with any European company that does arms-related business with a Chinese company. In view of the high-level of joint development on high-tech weapons systems between the United States and Europe, there are considerable domestic worries that American military forces in Asia could find themselves facing Chinese PLA forces armed with weapons developed partly by American companies or using American-derived technology.
In July 2006, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian warned again of China's growing military threat in the region. He declared that the PLA missile forces were now targeting the island with 784 medium- and short-range ballistic and 36 cruise missiles, and that the number of missiles was rising at the rate of about 100 per year. The ROC Ministry of National Defense has also pointed out that the growing purchases of offensive weapons systems was leading to a continuing increase in the offensive military power that the PLA forces could project across the Taiwan Strait.
At the same time, the Pentagon, in its 2006 annual report to the U.S. Congress on China's military power, noted that the rapid military buildup of its PLA forces in the near term appeared to be focused on preparing for contingencies for action in the Taiwan Strait, including ways of dealing with U.S. intervention. In addition, the PLA military buildup could also be used elsewhere in the region, such as to deal with low-level conflicts over resources and territory like the offshore oil deposits and East China Sea islands claimed by China, Japan and Taiwan.
Further purchases of offensive arms by China will only create the need for Taiwan to obtain additional defensive or deterrence weapons, fueling a regional arms race. At this time, the continuation of the E.U. arms embargo can press for improved human rights protections and reduced military expenditures by the Chinese government, as these steps should be seen as a mutually beneficial way to lower cross-strait political and military tensions.
