October 2006

Europas Illusion der Sicherheit Im Grunde mussten sich die Vertreter der europäischen Staaten im Saal des Bundeswehr-Forums im 19. Stock des Verlagshauses Axel Springer nach der Rede John Chipmans, Generaldirektor des International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, wie Angeklagte fühlen. Er warf ihnen vor, viel zu wenig für die internationale Sicherheit zu tun. Doch die von Chipman an den Pranger Gestellten beklatschten seine Rede heftig. Ein Europäer hatte den Europäern unterstellt,...
Iran Doubles Nuke Enrichment Capacity "Iran more likely slowed down the development program over the summer as part of a diplomatic strategy to persuade the world that it would not be nearing nuclear weapons capability any time soon," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Now that the Security Council is taking up a sanctions resolution, Iran has started the second cascade as a political signal to show that it does not give in to pressure," he said.
China's military buildup must be checked The Chinese defense budget has been growing at a double-digit growth rate in recent years, and the 2006 budget for defense was almost a 15-percent increase over the previous year. China's modernization of the PLA has led to a growing demand for new high-tech weapons systems, purchases of which have almost quadrupled between 1999 and 2005, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Moreover, the U.S. Pentagon has reported that these foreign weapons purchases are...
War, law and American democracy The asymmetric warfare engaged in by modern terrorists renders these classic concerns even more meaningful. The declassified summary of the NIE confirms earlier assessments by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (Strategic Survey 2003/4, 2004), the Rand Corporation, and others: together, they make it obvious that terrorism will not be reduced by military intervention and threats of military intervention, by uncritically supporting Israeli military actions, by establishing...
N. Korea Threat Lies in Nuclear Sales A study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies says North Korea had sold "several hundred" mid-range ballistic missiles "as well as materials, equipment, components and production technology" to countries that include Egypt, Iran, Libya, Pakistan, Syria and Yemen. Most of the exported missiles have been variants of the Scud design the Soviets first sold to North Korea in the late 1960s, the study says.Over a two-decade period, sales of missiles and...
Tremors in the East As in South Korea, Japan too faces a dilemma on the domestic scene. This relates to the logic of Japan's post-imperial nuclear pacifism. Although Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and authoritative Japanese sources indicated that Tokyo would continue to practise nuclear pacifism even after the DPRK's first atomic weapon test, the issue is really beginning to acquire political resonance in Japan itself. Relevant to these new dynamics is the assessment of the London-based International Institute for...
Gulf makes strategic shift in new system From now on, we will protect our national interests, regardless of where Americas interests lie in the region. Similarly but more diplomatically, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal told the Gulf Dialogue meeting in Bahrain in December 2004 that guarantees for Gulf security cannot be provided unilaterally even by the only superpower in the world but that the region required guarantees provided by the collective will of the international community. In...
Rogue Nuclear Programs Threaten New Arms Race Many experts worry that North Korea's and Iran's nuclear ambitions could be the catalyst for a new round of regional arms races -- especially given the international community's apparent inability to influence Pyongyang and Tehran."The world has been better off when countries know that their neighbors are not pursuing nuclear weapons," says Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear proliferation expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies."But when neighbors begin...
Nuclear-armed East Asia highly unlikely Any such crash programme would require tremendous effort and likely spark serious internal divisions, said Mark Fitzpatrick, a non-proliferation specialist at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies."Japan has sufficient reactor-grade plutonium that could, according to some American experts, conceivably be weaponised in as little as two months if Japan put all its national energy into the project," Fitzpatrick said."(But) unless Japan had done some...
Iran: EU Supports Gradual Sanctions Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior nonproliferation expert at the London-based International Institute For Strategic Studies, believes Iran has more to lose than the EU. He says Iran is facing UN Security Council sanctions and other measures that could limit or halt interactions with its trading partners. "I don't know the exact nature of the sanctions but there are other sanctions that are also coming into place, financial sanctions not necessarily adopted by the Security Council," he said....
Unique missile baffles diplomats in Egypt Other countries have asked Vashchuk's company to upgrade their S-125 SAM systems. The Military Balance, an annual report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, says Myanmar, Cuba, Peru, Slovakia, Vietnam, Syria, Libya, Bulgaria and India all have about 500 such systems, 200 to 250 of which can be overhauled. This means that Oboronitelnye Sistemy will have a lot of work in the foreseeable future.
EU backs limited sanctions against Iran Mark Fitzpatrick of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said the approach with Tehran would be gentler than with Pyongyang. "A sanctions resolution on Iran will not be swift or biting as it has been with North Korea," he said, noting that while Pyongyang openly affirmed its nuclear weapons intentions, Tehran insisted its programme was peaceful. There was no conclusive proof it sought an atom bomb, he said.
North Korea: Possible Impact Of UN Sanctions But China, long a supporter of Marxist North Korea, so far appears unwilling to go along with the plan to search all imports into that country to ensure there are no bomb or missile-related items. And the sanctions as passed by the UN Security Council do not authorize the use of force in cargo inspections. And military expert Jason Alderwick, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, points out that without UN authority for instance for full interdiction the sanctions...
When Outlaws Get The Bomb Indeed, since the end of the cold war in 1991, not all the news on the nuclear front has been bad. South Africa, Ukraine and, more recently, Libya all willingly gave up nuclear weapons or the pursuit of them. Brazil and Argentina formally abandoned any thought of going nuclear. "I would also disagree with the basic premise that the pressure is all in the direction of going nuclear," says Mark Fitzpatrick, a proliferation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in...
North Korea, Iran Want Talks With US U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan on Wednesday called on the Americans to drop their opposition to bilateral negotiations with the North. And Patrick M. Cronin, a former official in the Bush administration and the director of studies at London's International Institute of Strategic Studies says Washington needs to engage both Tehran and Pyongyang head-on. Talking will not guarantee success,'' he says. "But not talking may guarantee failure.''
Losing special friends By Raffaello Pantucci, Research Associate
Measuring diplomatic failure by the kilotonne By Dr Patrick Cronin, Director of Studies
A tinpot tyrant with a nuke Until now, even those accustomed to Kim Jong-Il's brinkmanship supposed that he might hold back from an action which overnight intensified his isolation. The International Institute of Strategic Studies believed that for Kim to test a bomb would be a 'suicidal' course of action. Conventional wisdom had it that even if he was willing to defy American wrath, he still deferred to China, the nearest thing he possesses to a friend. Now, however, the Chinese leadership seems as appalled as everybody...
UN resolution focuses on naval searches "Chinese co-operation would be essential to any such measure," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department official at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Even if China did not board North Korean ships, it would ease the practical difficulties of enforcing the policy if it made its ports available for inspections, he said.
Latest crisis a threat to landmark deal But North Korea's reported nuclear test highlights more than the pact's weaknesses and the need to repair its loopholes, analysts say. It shows the need for the United States to adopt a less confrontational method for dealing with enemy states. "North Korea has the bomb. It's not too late with Iran," said Mark Fitzpatric of the London-based International Institute for StrategicStudies. Iran has aggressively pursued a nuclear enrichment program that could enable it to produce fuel for...