By JENNIFER QUINN, Associated Press Writer
U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces are failing to rise above sectarian and political divisions, threatening American and British hopes that they can take over the work of coalition troops in Iraq, military experts said Wednesday.
Intensifying religious and political tensions are consuming more of the energies of Iraqi police and military forces trained by the United States and stretching their capabilities, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual assessment of the military capabilities of more than 160 countries.
"The rank and file of both forces are neither well enough trained to be fully effective on their own, nor sufficiently loyal to the national government to remain above the sectarian struggles," said John Chipman, director-general of the institute. "It's doubtful that a collective sense of Iraqi nationalism can survive in a context of increasing sectarian violence."
The situation is likely to make it more difficult for the United States and Britain to reduce the number of troops in the area any time soon.
Col. Christopher Langton the editor of the report, entitled "The Military Balance" said the policy of both the United States and Britain is to reduce the number of troops but only when Iraqi forces are capable of taking care of security themselves.
"Whether that is how it pans out over time, if things do not go the way they want, is another question," Langton said.
Concerns about forces in Iraq formed part of what the report deemed a "dangerous triptych" that also included Iran and Afghanistan. The defense think tank said issues in the three countries would dominate the world's security agenda, overshadowing dozens of smaller conflicts across the globe.
In Afghanistan, an expanding NATO mission will be faced with the challenge of plugging holes in the country's porous border with Pakistan to stop insurgents from slipping into the country, Chipman said.
With the United States reducing its military deployment there by 2,000, the institute warned that the Taliban could try to "take advantage of what they perceive to be an opportunity" and target NATO soldiers from countries like Britain, Estonia and the Netherlands.
“They know that casualties among European NATO member states may mobilize domestic opinion in those states against the war," Chipman said.
On Iran, the institute's planners reiterated long-standing concerns about its nuclear program, but suggested it was important to delay Iran's nuclear work either through a diplomatic solution or through sanctions.
Such a stalling tactic could allow the country a chance to debate internally whether risking international ire was worth maintaining the program.
"Preventing a nuclear outcome and controlling its consequences if it takes place will present the most difficult and classic strategic challenge in the months and years ahead," Chipman said.
Regional disputes remain worrisome to military planners, particularly in Asia, where myriad struggles exist.
"There is still a very great deal of instability, and there are places where conflict has been dormant and has now become revived," Chipman said, citing tensions in places like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India and Nepal.
