Defence ministers' first meeting a good start, but don't expect dramatic, militant action
By Simon Tay
IT was two weeks ago that the defence ministers of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) met in Kuala Lumpur. And while the impact of this inaugural meeting remains to be seen, some expectations of it must be tempered, even avoided.
With some 400-odd Asean meetings a year, this one was a historic marker. Almost every other portfolio in Asean — from economic to environment and even tourism — already convene regularly. The lack of defence meetings up until now has been a heritage of the group's Cold War beginnings.
Then, the idea for a South-east Asian Treaty Organisation, a proposed defence alliance with the United States, was rejected. Instead, the five Asean members at the time cooperated to lower political tensions and territorial disputes among themselves, and put pressure on Vietnam after its occupation of Cambodia.
While the US presence was vital, defence cooperation was conducted bilaterally. Malaysia and Indonesia cultivated credentials in the non-aligned movement, and Asean as a whole took a nuanced stance. Against this background, the Defence Ministers' meeting signals the will to move security cooperation to a higher level — impressive, since new members and former "opponent", Vietnam, are on board.
The meeting is critical to efforts to build an Asean community. Security is a key pillar for this community — not in the form of a military alliance directed against anyone but a vision in which conflict and violence are no longer used or threatened among community members.
This will require deeper political dialogue, more confidence-building and closer security cooperation. That which already exists among senior defence and military officials must be more focused, under ministerial supervision. Already, the ministers have created an Asean Defence Senior Officials' Meeting to support their work. Momentum should develop.
As it does, Asean can contribute to the security architecture in the wider region. The Asean Regional Forum (ARF) is a dialogue on politics and security that includes North-east Asian states and powers such as the US, Russia, the European Union and India. This is currently centred on dialogues among the foreign ministers.
Now, however, we should expect defence officials to participate more fully. In this way, the Asean Defence Ministers' meeting could add dimension to the ARF dialogue. This will help Asean prevent domination of the regional dialogue by the US, China or other powers.
We may also hope for closer Asean cooperation in areas of common interest, such as counter-terrorism, maritime piracy and illegal trafficking in migrants and drugs. Another area for cooperation among military forces is their response to cases of humanitarian need.
Major disasters, such as the tsunami of late 2004 and the impending eruption of Mount Merapi in Java, will strain or exceed the capacity of any one state to deal with alone.
Cooperation on such issues will be vital for the coherence of the grouping, its relevance to the region's peoples, and its credibility with partners. Some, however, may hold out greater — and perhaps unrealistic — expectations for Asean on security.
Many expect Asean to act on Myanmar. But it is significant that the regime was not represented at the inaugural Defence Ministers' meeting.
Meaningful progress on Myanmar will prove difficult for Asean unless China and India play their parts. Indeed, Asean should be mindful that attention to Myanmar does not distract the grouping from issues that involve the region as a whole.
A second expectation is for a regional "war" against terrorism. While terrorism does require Asean cooperation, such anticipation of military and security forces should be downplayed. To root out terrorism, much must depend on shared intelligence and coordinated police action.
A third expectation is that Asean might jointly undertake interventions and peace operations in areas of unrest. Current problems in Timor Leste have led to calls for intervention, with its government's consent and United Nations approval.
Australia seems poised to make this intervention, as it did back in 1999. Some believed then that Asean failed when it did not step in, and may again urge Asean to step in. But such an intervention was not possible for Asean then, without Indonesia's agreement, and likewise may remain difficult today.
Even where the needs are real, the current realities mean that Asean will fail on security cooperation and community if it tries to run before it can walk.
Acting immediately on Myanmar, Timor Leste or other current issues is beyond Asean at present. As such, even as some applaud the region's important new initiative, Asean may well face criticism that their defence dialogues will not lead to immediate and dramatic action.
A mix of such responses may be expected at next month's Shangri-La dialogue that brings some of the region's defence ministers together.
But this non-official dialogue, organised by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies and now in its fifth year, may have run its course, as the Asean defence dialogue is increasingly established and begins to engage the wider region.
The writer is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
