THIS year could prove to be critical for the security of the Gulf region. Current developments, unfortunately, do not leave much room for optimism. Throughout 2005, the Gulf security environment remained fragile. In fact, as the year progressed, there were increasing worries that the region was headed for another round of conflict. Iraq failed to calm down and Iran took an increasingly hostile position, raising concerns about its potential nuclear programme.
On their own, these issues could possibly be contained. However, without any conflict management system in place whereby regional and external states can interact on security issues, there is a distinct danger that events will begin to spiral out of control, thus opening the door to a new potentially devastating conflict.
Three conclusions can be drawn about the current Gulf security environment. First, the strategic significance of the Gulf region continues to increase. On the main issues of current international concern — Iraq, nuclear dilemma with Iran, wider implications of terrorism and political instability — the Gulf has retained its extraordinary importance. Regions such as Asia are paying more attention to the Gulf. Overall, recent events have underlined the fact that Gulf security is not a regional issue, but one where developments have global implications.
The Gulf is already recognised as the energy lifeline for the rest of the globe. Recent developments suggest that the region’s vital role for the economic well being of the global economy will be even more critical in the coming decades. In less than two years, the price of oil has increased by 55 per cent. Instead of a possible let-up on the world’s oil markets, indicators point toward a continued high price environment, even a further price rise. Even around $100 per barrel is no longer considered absurd. This is because the surge in demand for energy supplies from Asia, as one factor, is bound to stay on the up and the shortage of refinery capacity, as a second factor, will take decades to be overcome. In that context, Russia has placed energy security at the top of the upcoming G-8 Summit agenda.
Meanwhile, the Gulf is producing at full capacity with only Saudi Arabia maintaining any degree of excess production capability. Political events add to the extreme volatility in the market. Even though unsuccessful in causing disruption, the attempt by Al-Qaeda elements to attack the Abiqaiq oil complex in Saudi Arabia immediately resulted in a $2 rise of oil price. Thus, on energy matters alone, the Gulf remains critical.
A second observation is that the Gulf’s actual security and outlook for stability is not improving. The recent history of conflict in the region suggests that the end of one crisis is not necessarily followed by a period of relative stability. The Iranian revolution led to the Iran-Iraq War, which, in turn, led to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Nothing at the moment indicates that following the Iraq invasion and the removal of the Saddam Hussein regime, the region is becoming more peaceful. Iraq is tethering on a brink of civil war, the invasion has made terrorism more rather than less likely. Iran, on the other hand, is risking an outside intervention by thumbing its nose at the international community with regard to its nuclear programme. Both Iran and Iraq represent negative security factors at present. The result is that another round of conflict — or possibly a destabilising arms race — is a distinct possibility.
Third, the Gulf security environment is marked by an increased "internationalisation" of the issues that define it. The US continues to play the predominant role, but other actors, including Europe, Nato, and Asia, are beginning to take a closer look at the region and including developments in their strategic calculations. Regional security issues are now a part of their own national security calculations.
This is reflective of a trend whereby Gulf security matters are no longer left as the sole prerogative of the US. Europe, especially France and Germany, has drawn a lesson from the pre-Iraq invasion dispute with the US that leaving the region solely in the hands of the US is not cost free. The attack in Madrid was a direct reminder of that. In order to protect their energy supply lines, countries like India, China and Japan are also not likely to depend on the US or some rudimentary regional security mechanism as a guarantee for stability. If energy lines were disrupted, it would hit these countries first and hardest.
Where does this leave us? The region requires a different approach and it needs this fast. A good starting point would be the speech delivered by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal during the 2004 Gulf Dialogue in Bahrain, which unfortunately did not receive sufficient attention at the time. Pointing out that there is an urgent need "for a collective effort aimed at developing a new and more solid framework for Gulf security," he called on that framework to be based on sub-national, regional and international components. By sub-national, the minister elaborated, he meant "actual and meaningful political, economic, social and educational reforms, and not just cosmetic changes."
He said a start has been made, but the road remains long and rocky. The regional component consists of "a unified GCC, a prosperous Yemen, a stable Iraq, and a friendly Iran." Currently, none of those factors exist. In fact, there is not even a movement in that direction. And finally, acknowledging that international help will always be needed to underpin Gulf security, the Saudi foreign minister called on guarantees provided by the international community and not "unilaterally...by the only superpower in the world." This includes the positive engagement with Asian powers as well.
Is such a beginning possible? Recent history does not give scope for optimism. The US is not about to relinquish its predominance to some wishy-washy form of potential collective security interaction. The GCC countries are primarily concerned with their internal security issues and do not display a common front on regional matters. Iraq is years away from playing a constructive positive role in the region. At the moment, Iran appears ready to risk another regional conflict as a means to force through its right for nuclear empowerment. It is a frustrating situation and no one seems to want to take the first step.
Dr Christian Koch is the Program Director of GCC-EU Relations at the Gulf Research Center, Dubai
