March 2006

US carries big stick but is trying diplomacy Iran has stockpiled 85 metric tons of uranium hexafluoride and is producing more, according to the IAEA's director general. Gregory Schulte, the U.S representative to the UN in Vienna and its IAEA, citing the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, estimated that "85 metric tons is enough, if enriched, to produce 10 nuclear weapons."
Fear and Loathing in Asia At the April 2005 “Shangri-La” conference in Singapore, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was in typically blunt form. “Since no nation threatens China, one wonders: Why this growing investment?” Rumsfeld asked the assembled conference participants. “Why these continuing large and expanding arms purchases?” Why indeed. This question has reverberated in Washington and throughout capitals in Asia, as China’s neighbors reassess their defense priorities...
The attorney-general comes to town When he took the stage at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London on 7 March 2006, to speak on anti-terrorism policy and the need for international cooperation, Gonzales – the highest legal authority in the executive branch of the world's leading democracy – did not immediately command attention. Yet the attorney general, a former White House counsel, is the man who presided over (and to a considerable degree served to authorize) a range of contentious US...
Will This Man Get The Bomb? What Iran seems to be playing for, above all, is time. The longer it can string out the diplomatic process, the further it can proceed down the road toward completing the fuel cycle. It is possible that Iran may even agree to suspend uranium enrichment at some point in the near future, knowing that it has already created new facts on the ground. If the regime were then to change its mind again, says Mark Fitzpatrick, a longtime veteran of the U.S. State Department who is now at London's...
Iran's nuclear steps quicken, diplomats say "We're getting to the point where this fundamental difference between the U.S. and EU position and that of the Russians is being overtaken by Iran's … putting new facts on the ground," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear nonproliferation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, who previously worked for the U.S. State Department on nuclear issues. "Iran is closer and closer to enrichment, so the effort to deny them the capability is rapidly...
Old-fashioned terrorists run for cover "The old terrorist groups, at leadership level, would not want to be linked in the public mind with this new type of terror. They wouldn't want to be seen to be competing for attention with it," said Christopher Langton, an analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. "With the IRA and ETA and others, they call cease-fires and want to be negotiated with," said Langton, a retired British army colonel. But with al Qaeda, he said, "there's nobody...
Property Restitution Deal for South Ossetia "Everyone will participate in the meeting as private persons irrespective of their official positions," said Oksana Antonenko, director of Russia and Eurasia programmes for the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, which is behind the meeting. The aim is for the Georgians and South Ossetians to each get an idea of the other’s vision of what the problem is, and to talk about what they would each consider to be fair compensation, Antonenko told IWPR, adding,...
Burma's new capital: a bunker too far? Since 2002, the government has been on an accelerated arms-buying spree. It has upgraded navy and air-force weapons and increased the size of the army - from 180,000 men in 1988 to around 395,000 today, says London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Diplomacy at a loss over Iran There are also technical questions deriving from a possible failure to reach diplomatic concord. Besides its political agenda, it is also far from certain that Iran could develop nuclear weapons any time soon. Dr. Gary Samore from the International Institute for Strategic Studies produced a study last September, according to which “even if Iran tried to go for a bomb as quickly as possible, it’s likely to take at least five years to overcome technical obstacles to produce enough...
Iran's Nuclear Program The Director General reported that Iran has now stockpiled 85 metric tons of uranium hexafluoride and continues to produce more. According to estimates by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, 85 metric tons is enough, if enriched, to produce ten nuclear weapons. The Director General also reported that Iran has begun enrichment and plans to start installing 3,000 centrifuges by the end of this year. According to IISS estimates, a 3,000-centrifuge cascade can produce enough material...
Britain pushes for military option Mark Fitzpatrick, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that securing a Chapter VII resolution would provide the international community with a “stick” it could use against Iran. “It would be an important breakthrough,” he said. “It would open the door to sanctions and other measures.”
US may propose tough resolution against Iran Such a resolution "even with abstentions, would still be a strong step in New York," non-proliferation analyst Mark Fitzpatrick said from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank in London. "It would set a new legal framework," for pressure on Iran, Fitzpatrick said. It would also be an important development since Iran is counting on China, another key Iranian trading partner, and Russia to veto such a move, he added.
Prospect of anarchy on rise Toby Dodge, a London-based Iraq expert, argues that the Iraq conflict may not lead to the break-up of the country or to a broader regional conflict. "But Iraq's politicians are indulging in petty theatrics and short-term advantages while the country is ripping itself to pieces," he says. "What this leads to is something that could be worse than a civil war, it could be violent anarchy, with islands of comparative stability scattered across the country in a sea of violence."
Sweet Land of Liberty Appearing in London before the International Institute for Strategic Studies in March, U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, the Associated Press reported, responded to mounting criticisms abroad, including from allies, of our treatment of imprisoned terrorism suspects. His statements were so far from documented abuses, including torture, of detainees, that he forfeited his credibility among anyone knowledgeable about human rights. Speaking of what the CIA perpetrates - and calls "extr
If Bush ruled the world A few days earlier, Rice and President George W. Bush were in India on the same mission, making a "historic" gesture that conferred on India a nuclear partnership with America and authorized it to keep its nuclear weapons. This was also as meant to check China. Speaking to the International Institute for Strategic Studies just three years ago, Rice condemned "balance of power" politics as outmoded and dangerous. She said: "We tried this before; it led to the Great...
In Iraq, US influence wanes The US military's "kinetic or muscular approach has failed to produce sustained success," says a report last month from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), noting that insurgent attacks at a tempo of 75 per day against coalition forces show "no signs of diminishing." It notes that several key non-Al Qaeda insurgent groups secretly agreed to a 21-point "principles for dialogue" with US forces last December. Such talks have not taken place in...
Policing makes Malacca Strait more secure There are "62,000 shipping movements" through the strait every year, said Tim Huxley, an expert on Asia-Pacific security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, based in London."What was a problem of some concern has now been not eradicated, but brought under control," Huxley said. "Some of the reportage on this issue over the years has given the impression that the strait is highly dangerous. The figures show that that's not the case."
Iran Agrees to Discuss Iraq With the U.S. Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, said the Iranian leadership's willingness to engage in talks now after rejecting them earlier was significant."We're at the stage where one grasps at any sign of hope — any potential resolution — before the two sides escalate further," he said.
Oil groups shun Iran over fears of embargo Jack Straw, the British foreign secretary, speaking on Monday at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, said political uncertainty was affecting business confidence in Iran, as foreign investors “are already beginning to think twice about Iran or look elsewhere”. “Now, if the Iranian regime chooses not to heed the concerns of the international community, it will damage the interests of the Iranian people,” he said.
Critical year for security Where does this leave us? The region requires a different approach and it needs this fast. A good starting point would be the speech delivered by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal during the 2004 Gulf Dialogue in Bahrain, which unfortunately did not receive sufficient attention at the time. Pointing out that there is an urgent need "for a collective effort aimed at developing a new and more solid framework for Gulf security," he called on that framework to be based on...